Reportlinker Adds Electric car markets in Europe - 10 countries analysis and strategic review

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Electric car markets in Europe - 10 countries analysis and strategic review

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INTRODUCTION

Background Electric cars have been around since 1832, when Robert Anderson of Scotland invented the first electric-driven horseless carriage. However, Henry Ford guaranteed their rapid decline in popularity when his efficient manufacturing processes and use of the internal combustion engine created a mass market for cars at relatively low prices. Two issues have now changed the game. The health hazards of limitless CO2 emissions, to ourselves and our planet, have been acknowledged and the high price of oil seems likely to continue its rise as cheaply accessible reserves decline. This means that the days of the internal combustion engine for transport purposes may be limited. Judgments about the growth and shape of the mass consumer market for electric vehicles are of necessity made against a background of vehicles that are effectively prototypes and not yet in full production, or are produced in relatively low quantities as specialized or niche market vehicles. The improvement of battery technology to the point that it truly offers a long-distance alternative comparable to a traditional internal combustion engine is also subject to debate. This helps to explain the widely differing views on how quickly the consumer market can be expected to re-adopt this technology, and it is worth noting that there are competing transportation models and technologies for "greening" the atmosphere including the use of bio-fuels, hydrogen fuel cells, hybrids and rapidly improving internal combustion engines with much reduced carbon emissions.

There is also an argument that suggests that there is little gain in using zero emission electric cars if the power generated for their use comes from fossil fuels rather than renewable sources. Thus the rapid deployment of renewable energy goes hand-in-hand with the development of this market. The costs associated with the adoption of electric cars include a high initial price that takes account both of the early stage of this market with its battery requirements and a low running cost. While levels of car pricing will decrease as technology developments take place and production volumes rise, it seems likely that, in time, methods will be found to ensure that taxation levied on current fuels will be transferred to usage of "green" power.

This market is dynamic and while Europe is presently lagging behind other parts of the world in these developments there is no doubt that the continent has the will, the motivation and the technological capability to retain its position as a major competitive power. This Report This Report addresses the European market for plug-in electric cars, both battery and plug-in hybrid (serial configuration). Market forecasts include both types of vehicle, as these feature similar infrastructure requirements and are generally subject to the same adoption incentives in most European countries. In addition, our assumption is that vehicles will be able to operate under freeway conditions for performance and crash safety. Countries reviewed in detail, which between them account for almost 90% of European new car registrations in the EU, are: • Belgium • Denmark • France • Germany • Italy • Netherlands • Portugal • Spain • Sweden • UK

Currency rates used are: UK Pound1 = US$ 1.51 Euro  1 = US$ 1.26 SEK 1 = US$ 0.13 DKK 1 = US$ 0.17

Key forecasting assumptions made within this Report include:

- Unit sales: based on a sales switch to electric cars as a proportion of all cars

- Sales growth: based on industry information on vehicle launches, EV production capacities, and supra-national and national activity relating to EVs

- Pricing: based on industry information on launch and current pricing of EVs, and averaged base data on national levels of car pricing (taken over a range of models)

Information gathered in the course of our research for this Report came from multiple sources including:

- - European Commission and national governments

- Supra-national and national automotive trade associations and other trade bodies

- -Car and automotive component manufacturers, dealers and designers

- Infrastructure developers and power industry sources

- Trade, specialist and general e-publications

- Confidential sources within the industry

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF EXHIBITS8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY10

1. INTRODUCTION12

Background12

This Report13

2. TECHNOLOGY14

Electric Cars14

Batteries15

Charging Infrastructure15

Power Supply16

3. EUROPEAN UNION: LEGISLATION AND STRATEGIES17

Implementing Agreement on Hybrid and Electric Vehicles17

Emissions Reductions17

CO2: Auto Emissions18

European Green Cars Initiative19

4. STRATEGIC OVERVIEW: EUROPEAN MARKETS21

Markets and Trends21

Strategic Rationale for Electric Vehicle Adoption21

Innovation & Competitiveness21

CO2 emissions23

Moving forward23

Market Forecasts23

5. BELGIUM30

Markets and Forecasts30

Market Background30

Market Forecasts30

National Programmes33

Consumer Incentives34

Infrastructure Development34

Market Activity34

Cars and Batteries34

ELEKTROMOTIVE34

GREEN PROPULSION35

IMPERIA AUTOMOBILES / GREEN PROPULSION35

LEASEPLAN BELGIUM35

PANASONIC35

THE PLUGIN COMPANY35

REVA36

TOYOTA36

Infrastructure and Power37

ELECTRABEL37

Conclusions and Opportunity37

6. DENMARK38

Markets and Forecasts38

Market Background38

Market Forecasts38

Government Programmes41

Renault/Better Place42

Edison Project42

Market Activity43

Cars and Batteries43

LITHIUM BALANCE A/S43

LYNX ELECTRIC44

BYD44

Infrastructure and Power45

DONG ENERGY45

In co-operation with Project Better Place, the company has taken the initiative of installing recharging stations and battery charging facilities ahead of the Project's launch in 2011.45

Conclusions and Opportunity45

7. FRANCE46

Markets and Trends46

Market Background46

Market Forecasts46

National Programmes49

Market Activity52

Cars and Batteries52

BOLLORE52

DAIMLER52

HEULIEZ52

PSA PEUGEOT CITROEN52

RENAULT53

SAFT53

OTHERS53

Infrastructure and Power53

SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC53

DBT54

EDF54

Conclusions and Opportunity54

8. GERMANY55

Markets and Trends55

Market Background55

Market Forecasts55

National Programmes58

National Electromobility Development Plan58

Federal Assistance for Electromobility Development59

Economic Stimulus Package II59

Existing Programmes for Electromobility Development61

Battery Development61

E-Energy Technology61

Infrastructure Programmes62

Market Activity62

Cars and Batteries62

BMW62

DAIMLER63

GM64

MERCEDES64

OPEL (GM)64

PORSCHE64

VOLKSWAGEN/AUDI (VAG)64

EDAG65

MAGNA65

Infrastructure and Power Supply65

FORD/RHEIN-ENERGIE65

RWE/DAIMLER65

E.ON66

Conclusions and Opportunity66

9. ITALY67

Markets and Forecasts67

Market Background67

Market Forecasts67

National Programmes70

National policies70

Regional policies70

Lombardy70

Lazio70

Infrastructure development71

e-mobility Italy71

e-moving72

Current R&D programmes72

The MOVE team, Politecnico di Milano72

POMOS (Centre for Sustainable Transport)73

Centro Ricerche Fiat (CRF) (Fiat Research Centre)73

Market Activity74

Cars and Batteries74

DAIMLER74

ECOLORI ENERMOVE74

ECOMISSION74

EFFIDI AUTOMOTIVE GROUP75

FIAT75

PININFARINA76

REVA76

TAZZARI GROUP77

Infrastructure and Power Supply77

A2A77

ENEL77

Conclusions and Opportunity78

10. NETHERLANDS79

Markets and Trends79

Market Background79

Market Forecasts79

National Programmes82

Action Plan for Electric Vehicles82

Development Projects84

e-laad.nl84

Amsterdam84

Friesland85

Research and Development85

D-INCERT85

c.mm.n86

Market Activity86

Cars and Batteries86

CENTRIC AUTOMOTIVE.86

DURACAR HOLDING B.V.87

ELECTRIC CARS EUROPE87

FORMULA ZERO87

PHILIPS APPLIED TECHNOLOGIES87

SPYKER88

Infrastructure and Power Supply88

ENEXIS B.V.88

EPYON POWER89

Conclusions and Opportunity89

11. PORTUGAL90

Markets and Forecasts90

Market Background90

Market Forecasts90

National Programmes93

Mobi-E Network93

Consumer incentives94

Integrated Electric Mobility Model94

Market Activity95

Cars and Batteries95

RENAULT-NISSAN95

NISSAN-NEC95

THE U-CAR96

Infrastructure and Power96

EDP S.A. (ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL)96

MOBI.E TECH96

IT_EV GROUP97

INTELI97

CEIIA-CE97

CRITICAL SOFTWARE97

EDP INOVAÇAO97

EFACEC97

NOVABASE97

Conclusions and Opportunity98

12. SPAIN99

Markets and Trends99

Market Background99

Market Forecasts99

National Programmes103

Proyecto Movele103

Strategy to Promote Electric Vehicles in Spain103

Consumer incentives104

Research Programmes105

IREC105

Market Activity106

Cars and Batteries106

DAIMLER-ACCIONA106

FORD106

MICRO-VETT107

RENAULT107

RENAULT/NISSAN107

SEAT107

THINK108

Infrastructure and Power108

ACCIONA108

ENDESA109

IBERDROLA109

INDRA110

INGETEAM110

TELEFONICA110

Conclusions and Opportunity111

13. SWEDEN112

Markets and Forecasts112

Market Background112

Market Forecasts112

National Programmes115

Green Highway115

Legacy Infrastructure116

Stockholm116

Swedish Electric Mobility Initiative117

Research117

ETC Battery and Fuel Cells Sweden AB117

PowerCircle117

Test Site Sweden118

Market Activity118

Cars and Batteries118

ALELION BATTERIES AB118

ELECTROENGINE IN SWEDEN AB119

SAAB119

VOLVO CARS119

Infrastructure and Power Supply120

VATTENFALL120

Conclusions and Opportunity121

14. UNITED KINGDOM122

Markets and Trends122

Market Background122

Market Forecasts123

National Programmes126

Vehicle Incentive Scheme126

Consumer subsidy126

Manufacturer Requirements126

Infrastructure Development128

Plugged In Places128

Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Grant Programme129

Plug-In Vehicle Economics and Infrastructure project/Joined-Cities Plan129

Low Carbon Vehicle Projects129

Low Carbon Vehicles Innovation Platform129

Ultra Low Carbon Vehicle Demonstrators130

Low Carbon Economic Areas130

Other pilot schemes131

University-based Research131

Cranfield University131

Durham University Centre for Automotive Research132

Manchester University Aerospace Research Institute132

Oxford Brookes University Sustainable Vehicle Engineering Centre132

Sheffield University Department of Electrical & Electronic Engineering – Electrical Machines and Drives Research Group132

University of Southampton School of Engineering Sciences133

Strathclyde University Institute for Energy and Environment133

University of Warwick133

Market Activity133

Cars and Batteries133

ALLIED VEHICLES GROUP133

BEE AUTOMOBILES134

CITROËN134

DELTA MOTORSPORT134

ECOTRICITY134

FIAT134

FORD135

GORDON MURRAY DESIGN/ZYTEK135

GREEN MOTORSPORT LTD.135

JAGUAR/LANDROVER136

JJAD LTD.136

LIBERTY ELECTRIC CARS136

LIGHTNING CAR COMPANY136

LOTUS ENGINEERING137

NISSAN137

PRODRIVE137

RICARDO CONTROL AND ELECTRONICS TECHNICAL CENTRE137

TOYOTA137

VAUXHALL138

Infrastructure and Power Supply138

ELEKTROMOTIVE138

IBERDROLA RENOVABLES138

E.ON138

SCOTTISH AND SOUTHERN ENERGY138

Conclusions and Opportunity139

15. CONCLUSIONS140

Vehicle sales140

Integration of renewable energy/smart grid technology141

Personal transport management141

Investment in/partnerships for technology development141

Revived automotive industry141

APPENDIX A144

PROFILES OF MARKET PARTICIPANTS144

APPENDIX B188

INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANCY GROUP LTD188

TABLE OF EXHIBITS

Tables

Table 1: National Data

Table 2: Europe – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 3: Belgium – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 4: Denmark – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 5: Denmark ¬¬– Edison Project Work Programmes

Table 6: France – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 7: France – Plan for Electric Vehicle Development

Table 8: Germany – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 9: Germany – Research Priorities and Projects

Table 10: Italy – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 11: Netherlands – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 12: Netherlands – Strategy for Electric Vehicle Adoption

Table 13: Portugal – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 14: Spain – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 15: Sweden – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 16: UK – Forecast Market Development 2010-2020

Table 17: UK – Requirements for Vehicle Incentive Scheme 2011

Figures

Figure 1: Configurations of BEV and PHEV

Figure 2: National Comparisons – Forecast Annual Market Size

by Value 2020

Figure 3: National Comparisons – Forecast Annual Unit Market 2020

Figure 4: National Comparisons – Forecast Total Unit Sales

2011-2020

Figure 5: National Comparisons – Estimated % of Total New Car

Registrations 2011-2020

Figure 6: Belgium – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 7: Belgium – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 8: Denmark – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 9: Denmark – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 10: France – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 11: France – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 12: Germany – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 13: Germany – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 14: Italy – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 15: Italy – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 16: Netherlands – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 17: Netherlands – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 18: Portugal – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 19: Portugal – Forecast Build-up of Unit Marker 2011-2020

Figure 20: Spain – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 21: Spain – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

Figure 22: Sweden – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 23: Sweden – Forecast Build-up of Unit market 2011-2020

Figure 24: UK – Estimated % of Total Annual Car Sales 2011-2020

Figure 25: UK – Forecast Build-up of Unit Market 2011-2020

PROFILED MARKET PARTICIPANTS

Profiles are alphabetically listed

A2A

ACCIONA

ACI CONSULT

ALELION BATTERIES

ALLIED VEHICLES

BEE AUTOMOBILES

BETTER PLACE

BMW

BOLLOR?

BYD COMPANY

CE11A CE

CENTRIC AUTOMOTIVE

CRITICAL SOFTWARE

DAIMLER GROUP

DBT

DELTA MOTOSPORT

DONG ENERGY

DURACAR HOLDING

ELECTRIC CARS EUR

ECOLORI

ECOTRICITY

EDAG

EDF

EDP

EFACEC

EFFEDI AUTOMOBILE

ELECTROENGINE

ELEKTROMOTIVE

ELECTRASUN

ENDESA

ENEL ENEXIS

E.ON

EPYON POWER

ETC

FIAT

FORD MOTOR CO

FORMULA ZERO

GORDON MURRAY

GM EUROPE

GREEN PROPULSION

HEULIEZ

IBERDROLA

IMPERIA AUTOMOBILE

INDRA

INGETEAM

INTELI

JAGUAR/LANDROVER

JJAD

LEASEPLAN CORP

LIBERTY ELECTRIC

LIGHTNING CAR CO

LITHIUM BALANCE

LOTUS ENGINEERING

LYNX ELECTRIC

MAGNA INT. INC

MERCEDES-BENZ

MICRO-VETT

MITSUBISHI

MOBI.E TECH

NISSAN

NOVABASE PANASONIC

PHILIPS APPLIED TECH

PININFARINA

PORSCHE AUTOMOBIL

POWERCIRCLE

PRODRIVE

PSA

RENAULT

REVA ELECTRIC CAR

RHEINENERGIE

RICARDO CONTROL

RWE

SAAB

SAFT

SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC

SEAT

SPYKER

SYSTEAM

TATA MOTORS

TAZZARI GROUP

TELEFONICA

TEST SITE SWEDEN

THE PLUGIN COMPANY

THINK

TOYOTA

VAG GROUP

VOLVO

ZYTEC

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