ReportLinker Adds Country Risk Reports for the Middle East (Yemen, Syria, Kuwait and Qatar)

NEW YORK, April 12, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- ReportLinker has just added the latest updates to country risk report research from The Economist Intelligence Unit, covering Yemen, Syria, Kuwait and Qatar. Highlights include:

Country Risk Service Yemen April 2011

Yemen at a glance 2011-12 - Ongoing security problems in Yemen, exacerbated by the activities of militant Islamist groups, continued north-south tensions, an on-off rebellion in the north and deteriorating public finances, could endanger long-term political cohesion. The position of the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, looks untenable, after a host of tribal, political and security allies deserted him in March. However, with no clear succession plan in place and the president determined to cling on for as long as possible, the risk of a breakdown in central authority is high. Al-Qaida is likely to use the political crisis to consolidate its position. This will be of concern to the US and Saudi Arabia. The government will seek to liberalise and strengthen the business environment, but will be deflected from this course by its desire to quell the spreading protests—it has already implemented several economic support measures, including raising the wages of public-sector workers and reducing income tax. Having been boosted in 2010 by the coming on stream of the country's first liquefied natural gas plant, real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 2.7% in 2011-12. The exchange rate, meanwhile, will resume its weakening path in mid-2011, as the Central Bank of Yemen's declining stock of foreign-exchange reserves are insufficient to prop it up indefinitely. Key changes from last month : The killing of 52 protesters in the capital, Sanaa, on March 18th by unidentified gunmen has caused nationwide outrage, and led to the cleaving of the Yemeni polity. The Economist Intelligence Unit now does not expect Mr Saleh to remain in power beyond this year. We have lowered Yemen's growth forecasts, in response to the outbreak of unrest that has swept the country and the inevitable disruption that this will cause to both businesses and consumers. Read more: http://www.reportlinker.com/p0472502/Country-Risk-Service-Yemen-April-Updater.html#ixzz1JIBxkRTz

Country Risk Service Syria April 2011

Syria at a glance 2011-12 - Despite the unprecedented public unrest in March 2011, the Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and his ruling Baath party to hold on to power through a mixture of concessions and repression. Protests from a bold minority should be sporadic and containable unless harsh government crackdowns swell opposition numbers. Some limited domestic political reform is expected. Recent rapprochement with the US could stall if repression escalates, but no intervention is expected. Peace talks with Israel may resume in 2011-12 but will not lead to an imminent Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. Economic policy has recently focused on offsetting the impact of the long-term decline in oil production with increased investment in other export industries, import substitution and tourism, but public unrest may endanger these policies. Tensions within the regime over the pace of economic reform are likely to continue. Real GDP growth in 2011-12 is forecast to average 4.7% as private consumption growth accelerates and government spending picks up. Inflation will increase to an average of 6.7% in 2011-12, and the current-account deficit will average 1% of GDP. Key changes from last month : In response to the recent unrest, Mr Assad has granted financial concessions and promised gradual political reform, but his security forces have also shown a willingness to deploy deadly force to break up protests. Economic policy outlook: Following the protests, moves to reform and liberalise the economy are expected to stall. We have revised up our forecast for the budget deficit to 5.4% of GDP in 2011-12. The government has pledged to raise public-sector wages and cut taxes to appease protesters. We have revised up our forecast for inflation to an average rate of 6.7% in 2011-12. This is due to higher global commodity prices and increased government spending on wages. Read more: http://www.reportlinker.com/p0472516/Country-Risk-Service-Syria-April-Updater.html#ixzz1JI7dFunN

Country Risk Service Kuwait April 2011

Kuwait at a glance 2011-15 -The emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Jabr al-Sabah, will remain the ultimate political authority, with important policy decisions determined within the ruling Al Sabah family. Tensions between the government and parliament are deepening and in March 2011 the cabinet resigned in protest at the number of interpellation motions launched against ministers. Tensions are likely to persist and will hamper the legislative process in 2011-12. Kuwait's foreign policy will remain founded on its long-standing strategic alliance with the US, which could create tensions with Iran. Real GDP growth will pick up in 2011, reflecting higher oil output and the positive impact on domestic demand of higher prices. Growth is forecast to average 5% in 2012-15 as expansion in oil production and fixed investment pick up. The budget and current-account balances will record healthy surpluses in 2011-15, but the budget surplus, in particular, will fall as a percentage of GDP. Key changes from last month: Public opinion is divided on whether Kuwait should join the Saudi and UAE troop deployment in Bahrain. The Kuwaiti Shia Muslims (about 30% of the total population) have demonstrated in support of Bahrain's Shia community and are demanding greater rights in Kuwait. However, the Sunni and Shia populations live fairly harmoniously in Kuwait, and severe sectarian-based unrest is not expected. Money supply (M2) growth surged in February to 5.2%, up from 1% in January. The spike was largely the result of an increase in net foreign assets at the central bank and was probably related to government promises to increase transfers and benefits to Kuwaiti nationals. With private sector borrowing remaining in the doldrums, the increase in M2 growth has not led us to alter our interest rate forecast. The real GDP forecast for 2011 has been revised up to 4.4% (previously 4.2%) because of an upward revision to our oil production forecast. Read more: http://www.reportlinker.com/p0472515/Country-Risk-Service-Kuwait-April-Updater.html#ixzz1JI8AUcPy

Country Risk Service Qatar April 2011

Qatar at a glance 2011-15 - The emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, is expected to retain a firm grip on policymaking over the forecast period, assisted by a small inner circle of advisers from Qatar's leading families. Neither the emir nor the Qatari population appears to place a high priority on political reform, but we forecast that the emir will push ahead with elections in response to pro-democracy protests elsewhere in the region. The government will focus on economic diversification (including attracting foreign investment) and foreign policy, particularly with regard to Iran's nuclear programme. Government expenditure will continue to rise over the forecast period, but increasing hydrocarbons production will ensure that the fiscal account remains comfortably in surplus. A sharp increase in liquefied natural gas exports, as well as continued strong domestic demand, will boost real GDP growth from an estimated 14% in 2010 to 15.8% in 2011. Growth will slow to an average of 5.4% in 2012-15, as no new major energy projects are planned over the period. Following deflation in 2009-10, there will be a relatively mild inflationary rebound in 2011. Inflation will average 4% in 2011-15. Qatar has temporarily abandoned its intermediary role and participated militarily in the current NATO-led intervention in Libya. This move will only probably further antagonise some of its regional peers, especially in light of the statement by the chief of staff of the Qatari Air Force, who told reporters in March: "Certain countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt haven't taken leadership for the last three years." Plus, the economic policy outlook and the economic forecast. Read more: http://www.reportlinker.com/p0472499/Country-Risk-Service-Qatar-April-Updater.html#ixzz1JIApuPPM

In every report, you will find analysis on:

Risk assessment

Sovereign risk

Currency risk

Banking sector risk

Political risk

Economic structure risk

Rating definitions

Sovereign risk

Currency risk

Banking sector risk

Political risk

Economic structure risk

Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2011-15: Political stability

Central scenario for 2011-15: Election watch

Central scenario for 2011-15: International relations

Central scenario for 2011-15: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2011-15: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2011-15: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2011-15: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2011-15: Inflation

Central scenario for 2011-15: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2011-15: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

International liquidity

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

External financing requirement

External debt stock

External debt service

Nicolas Bombourg
Reportlinker
Email: [email protected]
US: (805)652-2626
Intl: +1 805-652-2626

SOURCE Reportlinker