Reportlinker Adds Carbon Trading and the Effect of the Copenhagen Agreement: Technical options and economic drivers to a low carbon future
NEW YORK, July 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
The reduction of global carbon emissions is now widely regarded as paramount if the world is to avoid major negative consequences throughout the course of the next century. Current levels of c. 380 parts per million (ppm), represent both a record high and an unprecedentedly rapid rise (by 30 ppm in just 17 years). To avoid adverse consequences – and possible catastrophe – experts believe that urgent action must be taken now to limit peak CO2 to 450 ppm.
Projections, based on current and forecast future emission levels, suggest that such a target is unlikely to be achieved. The interaction between economic growth, consumer demand and new technology is complex, and prediction is uncertain. However, a strong consensus now exists that without more concerted action that target will be exceeded at some point between 2030 and 2050, with most pessimistic assumptions outlooking ranges in excess of 800ppm by the end of the century.
The potential for reducing emissions using state-of-the-art technology is immense. So, too, is the cost (some analysts put it as high as 20 years). Various political initiatives have foundered on unwillingness by nation states to be "first movers". Attempts to resolve the issue by economic means have included carbon pricing, offsetting and the creation of carbon markets.
Key features of this report
• A review of the current threat to the environment from carbon emissions
• An overview of the nature of that threat by primary energy source (e.g., coal, oil, gas) and by end-use sector (transport, buildings, power generation, etc.)
• A summary and review of the main technological solutions available to reduce emissions: alternative strategies, including Carbon Capture and Sequestration and Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
• The theory underpinning economic initiatives to stimulate technology changes: carbon pricing and carbon markets
• Current structures and political critique
Scope of this report
• a quick and comprehensive understanding of the current issues under-lying the climate change debate
• Clear linkage between technological solutions – and the economic framework in which they have to be developed
• Understanding of the barriers to private sector initiatives in tackling carbon emissions
• Understanding of the political dimension that is currently hampering efforts to reach international agreement (e.g., the ethics of offsetting, the inclusion of REDD within offsetting schemes)
Key Market Issues
• Core Issue: Action is needed on carbon emissions: a variety of technological approaches have been identified – but in the absence of any economic incentive for implementation, progress on this front is stalled.
• Theoretical Approach: The international community, at Kyoto in the 1990's, and at various conferences since, have attempted to create an economic incentive for private action by instituting measures that:
- reflect the environmental cost of carbon emissions through a system of carbon pricing
- Formalise carbon trading through a number of international carbon markets
• Critique: A number of critiques have been put forward in respect of this approach, including the view that the theory itself is unjust (a form of "new colonialism"), that the system has unintended consequences, including support for projects that are non-sustainable or actually embed poor carbon practice, and that forestry should not be included within the calculation for offsetting projects.
- More seriously, it is argued that the current price of carbon is too low to achieve its objective.
Key findings from this report
• Action is required to reduce carbon emissions
• The range of technologies available to mitigate carbon emissions is wide and many technologies are capable of being implemented now: the main obstacle to implementation is cost
• The economic theory underpinning a solution to carbon emissions is based on the allocation of the carbon cost to different activities by means of a worldwide carbon pricing mechanism – and leaving the detailed working out of solutions to market mechanisms.
• The current price is half or less what it needs to be for effective technological solutions to be sought by the business community. Current forecasts suggest that targets initially set for 2020 and 2030 in terms of carbon emissions will not be met.
• This issue has been exacerbated by the failure of the most recent international conference on Climate Change, at Copenhagen in December 2009, to come up with more than a statement of general principles. The international business community is looking for guidance and direction on specifics, as well as some re-assurance of carbon price stability into the short and medium term future.
Key questions answered
• What is the scale of the challenge facing the world in terms of carbon reduction?
• What are the key technological mechanisms available for dealing with these challenges?
• What non-technical solutions (CCS and LULUCF) are available?
• What are the main economic drivers put in place to stimulate technological change (carbon pricing, trading, markets)?
Table of Contents
Carbon trading and the effect of the Copenhagen agreement
Executive summary 10
Global warming: current status 10
The principal components of CO2 emissions 11
Global warming – primary technical solutions 11
Global warming – further technical approaches 12
Global warming – political and economic approaches 13
Global warming – politics and economics in practice 14
Global warming - the likely outlook 16
Conclusions 17
Chapter 1 Introduction 20
Summary 20
Objectives 20
Chapter 2 Global warming: current status 24
Summary 24
Introduction 25
Global warming 25
Current situation: global CO2 generation 27
Drivers of CO2 generation: economic, social and technological trends 28
Emission trends for CO2 generation 32
Overview of recent history 32
CO2 emissions 36
Fossil fuel usage 38
Electricity consumption 40
CO2 intensity 41
Energy intensity 42
Electricity intensity 43
Chapter 3 The principal components of CO2 emissions 46
Summary 46
Introduction 46
Energy sources 47
Energy conversion 51
Transformation and storage 53
Power plants 54
Transportation 56
Energy chain - overview 58
Energy uses 59
Power generation 60
Transport 62
Road 64
Shipping (including inland waterways) 64
Air travel 65
Rail 65
Buildings and construction 66
Manufacturing industry 67
Chapter 4 Global warming – primary technical solutions 70
Summary 70
Introduction 71
The main physical principles and approaches to CO2 control 71
Counter trends 72
Principal technological approaches 73
Moves toward Smart Grid 74
Zero Energy Building 75
Alternative fuels 75
Fuel supply chain 76
Switching fuels 76
Nuclear and Renewables 77
Mitigation by sector 78
Power generation 78
Energy efficiency – integrated IT solutions and Smart Metering 80
Transport 81
Private cars, road freight and bus and coach 82
Biofuels 84
Natural Gas (CNG / LNG / GTL) 84
Hydrogen/Fuel Cells 84
Electric vehicles 85
Mode shifts 85
Shipping (including inland waterways) 86
Increasing efficiency 86
Advancing technology 87
Improving operations 87
Mode shift 88
Partnering for progress 88
CO2 emission indexing scheme 89
Economic instruments for international shipping 89
Air travel 90
Fuel efficiency 90
Technology developments 90
Engine developments 90
Aircraft 90
Alternative fuels 91
Lower flying 91
RVSM (Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum) 91
Lower flight speeds 92
Rail 92
Reducing aerodynamic resistance 92
Construction 92
Reducing energy consumption and embodied energy in buildings 93
Switching to low-carbon fuels 93
Manufacturing industry 95
Sector-wide efficiencies 95
Process-specific improvements 95
Optimized operating procedures 95
Cross-sector impact 95
Chapter 5 Global warming – further technical approaches 100
Summary 100
Introduction 101
Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) 101
Scope for capture 102
Transmission considerations 104
Costs associated with CCS 105
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) 107
Agriculture 107
Technical approaches 107
Potential for carbon reduction 108
Forestry 109
Approaches 111
Potential for Carbon reduction 112
Impact of technology availability 113
Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis 116
Chapter 6 Global warming – political and economic approaches 120
Summary 120
Introduction 121
Economic theory 121
Technology alone will not work 121
Economic incentives 122
Political initiatives: structures and framework 124
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 125
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 125
Kyoto 125
Agreed mechanisms for carbon control 127
Copenhagen 128
Copenhagen Accord 129
Chapter 7 Global warming – politics and economics in practice 132
Summary 132
Introduction 133
Emissions trading 133
Trading principles 133
Trading units 134
Carbon markets 135
Carbon trading volumes 138
Voluntary markets 140
Voluntary market trends 141
Carbon pricing 142
Prices stabilizing at lower levels 144
Technology transfer 145
Regional co-operation 146
Issues around current political and economic initiatives 147
General political and economic issues 147
Development 148
Views on the principle of offsetting 150
Impact on forestry 150
Specific criticisms of existing carbon trading mechanisms 152
Carbon surplus 152
Offsets acting counter-productively 153
A long list of criticisms 154
The future of carbon trading 155
Carbon trading best practice 156
Chapter 8 Global warming - the likely outlook 160
Summary 160
Introduction 161
Actions required 161
Agenda for change 162
Quantitative targets 164
More stringent targets 166
Forecasts 168
Economic and social factors 169
Population 169
GDP 169
CO2 emissions 169
Future prices and effects on emissions 172
Outlook/developments since Copenhagen 175
UK Initiative 177
Existing proposals 178
Chapter 9 Conclusions 182
Summary 182
Main achievements 182
Gaps in knowledge 182
What needs to be done – next steps 183
Implications for the future 184
Glossary 185
Index 188
Footnotes 190
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: Impacts of four Kaya factors on world CO2 emissions, 2010 34
Figure 2.2: CO2 emissions by country in 2007 (GtCO2) 38
Figure 3.3: Terminology for energy commodities 48
Figure 3.4: World total final consumption by fuel 49
Figure 3.5: Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) 59
Figure 3.6: CO2 emissions and energy use by mode of transport (2000) 62
Figure 7.7: Carbon prices respond to the recession (€), 2010 143
Figure 8.8: Global economic potential in 2030 (Bottom up): cost categories in US$/tCO2e 173
Figure 8.9: Global economic potential in 2030 (Top Down): cost categories in US$/tCO2e 173
Figure 8.10: Global economic potential in 2030: cost categories in US$/tCO2e 174
List of Tables
Table 2.1: Temperature increase at equilibrium relative to pre-industrial (C) 27
Table 2.2: Key ratios for energy-related CO2 emissions in 2007 30
Table 2.3: Impacts of four Kaya factors on world CO2 emissions, 2010 33
Table 3.4: CO2 emissions by sector (MtCO2), 2007 60
Table 3.5: CO2 emissions by sector (%), 2007 61
Table 3.6: CO2 emissions and energy use by mode of transport (%), 2000 62
Table 3.7: Conversion factors from guidelines for company reporting on greenhouse gas emissions (CO2), July 2005 66
Table 4.8: Reduction in CO2 emissions relative to carbon price (GtCO2/yr) 2030 79
Table 4.9: Reduction in CO2 emissions for buildings relative to carbon price (GtCO2/yr), 2020 and 2030 94
Table 5.10: Reduction in CO2 emissions for agriculture relative to Carbon Price (2030) 109
Table 7.11: Carbon market at a glance, volumes and values in 2008-09 138
Table 8.12: Carbon intensity of G20 economies excluding EU (kgCO2/$GDP), 2008 165
Table 8.13: Classification of recent (post-TAR) stabilization scenarios according to different stabilization targets and alternative stabilization metrics 170
Table 8.14: A view on analysts' expectations for EU ETS Phase II and Phase III 179
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Cleantech Industry: Carbon Trading and the Effect of the Copenhagen Agreement: Technical options and economic drivers to a low carbon future
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Nicolas Bombourg
Reportlinker
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