Petrochemical Industry to 2015 - Increased Demand from China will Drive Recovery

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Petrochemical Industry to 2015 - Increased Demand from China will Drive Recovery

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Petrochemical Industry to 2015 - Increased Demand from China will Drive Recovery

Summary

GlobalData, the industry analysis specialist, has released its latest research, "Petrochemical Industry to 2015 - Increased Demand from China will Drive Recovery". The study, which is an offering from the company's Petrochemical Research Group, provides an in-depth analysis of the post-recession Chinese petrochemical industry, with demand and production forecasts and key trends until 2015. It provides the historic and future forecasts of basic petrochemicals and polymers capacity, production and demand in China. The study provides detailed analysis of China's role in helping the global petrochemicals industry to recover from slowdown. The report presents export trends of major petrochemicals producing countries to China during the slowdown and initial recovery phase. In addition, the report discusses major foreign investments in China. It also describes the growth strategies adopted by major companies in the recovery phase. Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese petrochemical market and its trade and collaboration with various countries during the economic crisis and the recovery phase. The report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GlobalData's research team of industry experts.

The Chinese petrochemicals industry is the fastest growing petrochemicals industry in the world. As with other petrochemical markets, the Chinese petrochemicals market stumbled as recession slowed down the growth, but stimulus packages and strong demand from its large domestic market helped to revive the petrochemicals industry. The Chinese petrochemicals industry is imports-dependent, which will continue to benefit the producers in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Japan, Korea and the US. These countries can extend their excess supply to the Chinese market. The fast growing Chinese market is attracting foreign producers who are entering into joint ventures with Chinese producers to establish manufacturing facilities in China.

The demand for basic petrochemicals and major plastics in China has increased from 37.949 MMtpa in 2000 to 100.843 MMtpa in 2010, at a CAGR of 10.3%. The demand growth rate in China is high as compared to the production growth rate, which makes it dependent on imports to meet its domestic demand. The growing Chinese demand in the recovery phase provides opportunities to producers in other countries who can export their excess supply to the Chinese market. Major Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea have benefited most by exporting to China. In 2010, Korea accounted for 31% of China's total basic petrochemicals imports and 21% of major plastics imports, while Japan accounted for 23% of China's total basic petrochemicals imports and 9% of major plastics imports.

Scope

The report provides in-depth analysis, market opportunities and challenges for manufacturers of petrochemicals, worldwide. It contains detailed information about the Chinese petrochemical industry, planned project details, demand and production forecasts, and import data for major petrochemicals and polymers in China. Its scope includes -

- Effect of economic slowdown on the global petrochemical industry

- Demand for basic petrochemicals and major plastics by volume in key regions – Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, and the Middle East and Africa.

- Planned capacity addition of basic petrochemicals and major plastics in China.

- Market scenario for major petrochemicals and polymers in China from 2000 to 2010, and forecasts for five years to 2015.

- Imports of major polymers into China from different regions such as Japan, South Korea, the US, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Brazil.

- Major international deals in the Chinese petrochemicals industry in the period 2008-2010.

- Strategies adopted by major petrochemicals producers to utilize growing Chinese demand.

Reasons to buy

The report will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner. It will allow you to -

- Understand the impact of economic crisis on the global petrochemical industry and how the increased demand from China has helped the industry to recover from slowdown.

- Develop business strategies with the help of specific insights on the Chinese petrochemicals market.

- Identify opportunities in the Chinese petrochemical industry.

- Identify prospective investment targets through a comprehensive update and discussion of new petrochemical projects, and major trends in China.

- Increase future revenue and profitability with the help of insights on the future opportunities and critical success factors in the Chinese petrochemical industry.

- Identify entry prospects in the Chinese petrochemical market through analysis of major deals, foreign investments and joint ventures.

1 Table of contents

1 Table of contents 3

1.1 List of Tables 5

1.2 List of Figures 6

2 Introduction 7

2.1 Overview 7

2.2 GlobalData Report Guidance 8

3 Impact of Economic Slowdown on the Global Petrochemicals Industry 9

3.1 Economic Crisis and Lower Consumer Spending Affected the Petrochemicals End Use Sectors 9

3.2 Several Petrochemicals Plants in North America and Europe Shut Down Because of Low Demand 11

3.3 Petrochemicals Demand Slumped as the Financial Crisis Disseminated Across the Globe 14

3.3.1 Collapse of Construction, Automotive and Packaging Sectors in North America Caused a Slump in the Petrochemicals Industry 14

3.3.2 European Petrochemicals Demand Dropped Due to Credit Crunch 16

3.3.3 Asia-Pacific Petrochemicals Demand Remained Firm, Owing to the Resilient Chinese Market 18

3.3.4 Persistent Domestic Demand Maintained Steady Growth in the Middle East Petrochemicals Industry 20

3.3.5 The Latin American Petrochemical Industry Suffered as Demand from the Exports Market Declined 22

4 Phenomenal Rise of the Chinese Petrochemicals Industry in the Last Decade 25

4.1 Rapidly Growing Demand Necessitated the Development of Petrochemicals Projects 25

4.2 Petrochemicals Production and Demand in China Expanded with Growing GDP and Large Market Size 30

4.3 Low-Cost Labor and Favorable Government Polices Helped China to Hold the Leading Position in the Global Petrochemicals Industry 34

4.3.1 Low Cost Labor Makes Chinese Production More Efficient 34

4.3.2 Favorable Government Policies have been Crucial in Promoting the Chinese Petrochemicals Industry 35

5 Stimulus Package and Strong End Use Demand Facilitated Early Recovery of the Chinese Petrochemicals Industry 36

5.1 Government Spending Through Stimulus Packages Increased the Petrochemicals Demand 36

5.1.1 Infrastructure Investment Instrumental in the Revival of the Construction Sector 36

5.1.2 Petrochemicals-Specific Stimulus Package Boosted the Production Capacity 37

5.1.3 Home Appliance Subsidy Scheme Fueled the Demand for Polymers in the Country 38

5.2 Industrial Value Added Output in China Increased as a Result of Stimulus Packages 39

5.3 End Use Sectors in China Recuperated Early from Recession 41

5.3.1 The Packaging Sector Recovered and Became the Second Largest Packaging Industry in the World 41

5.3.2 The Automotive Sector Accelerated Petrochemicals Demand, Driven by the Passenger Cars Segment 41

5.3.3 The Construction Sector is Backed by the Government Plan to Provide 36 Million Subsidized Housing Apartments 44

5.4 Petrochemicals Prices Recovered as Demand Revived 45

6 Imports-Driven Petrochemicals Industry in China Will Help the Global Petrochemicals Industry to Recover from Economic Slowdown 48

6.1 Basic Petrochemicals Exports to China are Dominated by Major Asian Countries 48

6.2 Share of Non-Asian Countries in Major Plastics Exports to China have Increased 50

7 Major Economies of the World to Benefit from the Thriving Chinese Market 53

7.1 Japan and South Korea are Major Asian Countries to Benefit from Chinese Demand 53

7.2 The Middle East is Facing Overcapacity and Relying on Exports to China 55

7.2.1 Construction of Large Scale Petrochemicals Plants in the Middle East Created Overcapacity 55

7.2.2 China's Imports Oriented Petrochemicals Industry has Directly Benefited Major Producers in the Middle East 59

7.3 Exports from Brazil to China Grew Despite Geographic Distance 60

7.4 The US Petrochemicals Industry Survived the Crisis by Supplying Surplus Quantities to China 61

8 Foreign Producers are Focusing on Investing in China to Take Advantage of the Expanding Petrochemicals Industry 63

8.1 Major International Deals in China 63

8.2 Government Response to Foreign Investment in China 66

9 Major Petrochemicals Companies in China: Strategies to Sustain Growth 67

9.1 Royal Dutch Shell plc 67

9.2 BASF SE 69

9.3 BP p.l.c. 71

9.4 Exxon Mobil Corporation 73

10 Appendix 74

10.1 Definitions 74

10.1.1 Installed Plant Capacity 74

10.1.2 Key Feedstock 74

10.1.3 Process 74

10.1.4 Technology 74

10.2 Abbreviations 74

10.3 GlobalData's Research Methodology 74

10.3.1 Coverage 75

10.3.2 Secondary Research 75

10.3.3 Primary Research 75

10.3.4 Expert Panel Validation 76

10.4 Contact Us 76

10.5 Disclaimer 76

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Petrochemicals Industry, Major End Use Sectors 10

Table 2: North America Petrochemicals Industry, Inactive Complex Details by Commodity, 2008-2010 11

Table 3: Europe Petrochemicals Industry, Inactive Complex Details by Commodity, 2008-2010 12

Table 4: Europe Petrochemicals Industry, Inactive Complex Details by Commodity, 2008-2010 (Contd.) 13

Table 5: North America Automotive Industry, Production Growth, %, 2001-2009 14

Table 6: North America Petrochemicals Industry, Demand Share by End Use Sectors, %, 2009 14

Table 7: North America Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 15

Table 8: Europe Automotive Industry, Production Growth, %, 2001-2009 16

Table 9: Europe Petrochemicals Industry, Demand Share by End Use Sectors, %, 2009 16

Table 10: Europe Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 17

Table 11: Asia-Pacific Automotive Industry, Production Growth, %, 2001-2009 18

Table 12: Asia-Pacific Petrochemicals Industry, Demand Share by End Use Industry, %, 2009 18

Table 13: Asia Pacific Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 19

Table 14: Middle East Automotive Industry, Production Growth, %, 2001-2009 20

Table 15: Construction and Retail Sector, Middle East, Growth Rate, %, 2001-2010 20

Table 16: Middle East Petrochemicals Industry, Demand Share by End Use Industry, %, 2010 21

Table 17: Middle East Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 22

Table 18: South and Central America Automotive Industry, Production Growth, %, 2001-2009 22

Table 19: Construction and Retail Sector, South and Central America, Growth Rate, %, 2001-2010 23

Table 20: South and Central America Petrochemicals Industry, Demand Share by End Use Industry, %, 2010 23

Table 21: South and Central America Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 24

Table 22: Petrochemicals Industry, China, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Capacity, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 26

Table 23: Global Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Capacity Share by Region, 2000-2010 27

Table 24: Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastic Industry China, Planned Project Details by Commodity, 2011-2015 27

Table 25: Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastic Industry China, Planned Project Details by Commodity, 2011-2015 (Contd.) 28

Table 26: Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastic Industry China, Planned Project Details by Commodity, 2011-2015 (Contd.) 29

Table 27: Petrochemicals Industry, China, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Production and Demand, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 31

Table 28: Global Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Demand Share by Region, %, 2000-2010 32

Table 29: Global Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Share by Region, 2000-2010 33

Table 30: China Manufacturing Industry, Hourly Compensation Costs, $, 2002-2008 34

Table 31: China Refining Industry, Refinery Start Up, 2009-2015 37

Table 32: China Ethylene Industry, Plant Start Up, 2009-2010 38

Table 33: China Industrial Output, Growth Rate, %, March 2008-Dec 2009 40

Table 34: China Packaging Industry, Output Value, 2003-2010 41

Table 35: China Automotive Industry, Automotive Production and Sales, 2006-2011 43

Table 36: China Construction Industry, Total Output Value, $bn, 2000-2010 45

Table 37: China Petrochemicals Industry, Average Prices, $/Ton, 2000-2015 47

Table 38: China Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Imports, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 49

Table 39: China Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Exporters to China, %, 2010 50

Table 40: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Imports, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 51

Table 41: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Exporters to China, %, 2010 52

Table 42: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Imports from South Korea, MMtpa, 2000-2010 54

Table 43: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Imports from Japan, MMtpa, 2000-2010 55

Table 44: Middle East Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Capacity, MMtpa, 2000-2015 56

Table 45: Middle East Olefin and Polyolefin Industry, Planned Project Details, 2011-2015 57

Table 46: Middle East Olefin and Polyolefin Industry, Planned Project Details, 2011-2015 (Contd.) 58

Table 47: China Polyolefin Industry, Imports from Middle East, MMtpa, 2000-2010 60

Table 48: China Polyolefin Industry, Imports from Brazil, MMtpa, 2000-2010 61

Table 49: China Polyolefin Industry, Imports from the US, MMtpa, 2000-2010 62

Table 50: China Petrochemicals Industry, International Joint Venture Details, 2008-2011 63

Table 51: China Petrochemicals Industry, License Agreement Details, 2008-2011 64

Table 52: China Petrochemicals Industry, Acquisition Details, 2008-2011 65

Table 53: China Petrochemicals Industry, Assets Transaction Details, 2008-2011 65

Table 54: Royal Dutch Shell plc, Plant Expansions, 2008-2011 67

Table 55: Royal Dutch Shell plc, Plants Details in China, 2011 68

Table 56: BASF SE, Planned Project Details, 2011-2015 69

Table 57: BASF SE, Plant Expansions, 2008- 2011 69

Table 58: BASF SE, Plants Details in China, 2011 70

Table 59: BP p.l.c., Plant Expansions in China, 2008-2011 71

Table 60: BP p.l.c., Plants Details in China, 2011 72

Table 61: Exxon Mobil Corporation, Joint Venture Project Details in China, 2011 73

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: North America Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 15

Figure 2: Europe Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 17

Figure 3: Asia-Pacific Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 19

Figure 4: Middle East Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 21

Figure 5: South and Central America Petrochemical Industry, Demand Volume of Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics, MMtpa, 2000-2010 24

Figure 6: Petrochemicals Industry, China, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Capacity, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 25

Figure 7: Global Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Capacity Share by Region, 2000-2010 26

Figure 8: Petrochemicals Industry, China, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Production and Demand, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 30

Figure 9: Global Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Demand Share by Region, %, 2000-2010 32

Figure 10: Global Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals and Major Plastics Production Share by Region, %, 2000-2010 33

Figure 11: Global Manufacturing Industry, Region Wise Hourly Compensation Costs, $, 2008 35

Figure 12: China Stimulus Package Details, 2009 36

Figure 13: China Industrial Output, Growth Rate, %, March 2008-Dec 2009 39

Figure 14: China Automotives Industry, Monthly Sales, March 2008-December 2009 42

Figure 15: China Automotive Industry, Sales and Production, 2006-2010 43

Figure 16: China Construction Industry, Total Output Value, $bn, 2000-2010 44

Figure 17: China Petrochemicals Industry, Average Prices, $/Ton, 2000-2015 46

Figure 18: China Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Imports, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 48

Figure 19: China Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Exporters to China, %, 2010 49

Figure 20: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Imports, MMtpa, 2000- 2015 50

Figure 21: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Exporters to China, %, 2010 51

Figure 22: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Imports from South Korea, MMtpa, 2000-2010 53

Figure 23: China Petrochemicals Industry, Major Plastics Imports from Japan, MMtpa, 2000-2010 54

Figure 24: Middle East Petrochemicals Industry, Basic Petrochemicals Capacity, MMtpa, 2000-2015 56

Figure 25: China Polyolefin Industry, Imports from Middle East, MMtpa, 2000-2010 59

Figure 26: China Polyolefin Industry, Imports from Brazil, MMtpa, 2000-2010 60

Figure 27: China Polyolefin Industry, Imports from the US, MMtpa, 2000-2010 62

Companies mentioned

Royal Dutch Shell plc

BASF SE

BP p.l.c.

Exxon Mobil Corporation

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