November New-Car Sales Expected To Rise Nearly 4 Percent On Black Friday Deals, According To Kelley Blue Book

General Motors Outshines Competitors with Enticing Offers; Small, Mid-Size Cars Compete for Attention

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Nov 26, 2013, 05:00 ET

IRVINE, Calif., Nov. 26, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales are expected to improve 3.6 percent year-over-year in November to a total of nearly 1.19 million units, according to Kelley Blue Book www.kbb.com, the leading provider of new and used car information. Fears of a vehicle sale hangover following the government shutdown in October turned out to be largely overblown as consumers showed no hesitation heading out to the dealership in November.

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"Although sales are only expected to rise approximately 3.6 percent from last year, it should be noted that sales were especially strong in November 2012, as consumers on the East Coast returned to the dealership to replace a vehicle or make a purchase that was delayed due to Superstorm Sandy," said Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "Sales in November tend to be heavily skewed toward the end of the month because of Black Friday sales events, such as General Motors' current supplier pricing promotion and deals on Ford models, so sales could surpass current expectations if the available deals are especially enticing."

Key Highlights for Estimated November 2013 Sales Forecast:

In November, new light-vehicle sales, including fleet, are expected to hit 1,185,000 units, up 3.6 percent from November 2012 and down 1.7 percent from October 2013.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for November 2013 is estimated to be 15.6 million, up from 15.3 million in November 2012 and up from 15.2 million in October 2013.
Retail sales are expected to account for 83 percent of volume in November 2013.

General Motors to Show Greatest Gains in November 2013

General Motors is expected to receive a strong push in November, thanks to high demand for a host of redesigned models across its product portfolio.

"The Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra should have solid growth, as demand for pickups continues with the strength in the real estate market," said Gutierrez. "Solid gains also are expected for Cadillac and Buick, as consumers continue to look to the new Cadillac ATS, XTS and Buick Encore as legitimate competitors to traditional luxury players, such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz."

Further aiding the manufacturer's performance this month will be Black Friday deals, which will allow consumers to receive employee pricing for a variety of General Motors' vehicles.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ²
Manufacturer	Nov-13	Nov-12	YOY %	Nov-13	Nov-12	YOY %
General Motors (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)	209,000	186,505	12.1%	17.8%	16.3%	1.5%
Ford Motor Company (Ford, Lincoln)	185,000	177,092	6.2%	16.0%	15.5%	0.5%
Toyota Motor Company (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)	171,000	161,695	5.8%	14.6%	14.1%	0.4%
Chrysler Group (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, RAM)	131,000	122,565	6.9%	11.1%	10.7%	0.4%
American Honda (Acura, Honda)	119,000	116,580	2.1%	10.1%	10.2%	-0.1%
Nissan North America (Infiniti, Nissan)	100,000	96,197	4.0%	8.5%	8.4%	0.1%
Hyundai-Kia	91,000	94,542	-3.7%	7.7%	8.3%	-0.5%
Volkswagen Group (Audi, Volkswagen)	44,000	48,795	-9.8%	3.7%	4.3%	-0.5%
Total ³	1,185,000	1,143,916	3.6%	-	-	-
¹Historical data from OEM sales announcements
² Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
³ Includes brands not shown

Trucks and Small Crossovers Continue to Lead Gains, Small and Mid-Size Cars Compete for Attention

Continuing the trend through the remainder of 2013, crossover and full-size pickup trucks will be the two top performing segments in November.

"We expect the small crossover segment to improve by more than 20 percent, thanks to solid demand for segment mainstays, such as the Ford Escape and Honda CR-V, as well as the Toyota RAV4, which was just recently redesigned," said Gutierrez. "Full-size trucks will improve 8.1 percent, below the more than 20 percent growth that was the norm through most of the year. The slowdown in the growth of the truck segment comes as no surprise as we are now at a point where we are comparing to sales in late 2012, when the acceleration in pickup truck sales really began."

Although significant growth is expected in the truck and crossover segments, sales of mid-size cars and compact cars have slowed. Compact cars have seen relatively steady sales volume lately, likely due to decreasing fuel prices. This is a segment that may be close to equilibrium in terms of market share, and with so many strong performers in segment, such as the redesigned Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic and Ford Focus, consumers will have plenty of opportunities for a great deal. Mid-size sedan sales have slowed due to a number of factors, including competition with small crossovers. There has been a tremendous amount of cross shopping between these two segments, which has slowed the pace of growth in the mid-size segment. This is another segment that presents a tremendous opportunity for many consumers, especially with heated competition of compelling products and pricing wars between the Toyota Camry, Honda Accord and Ford Fusion.

	Sales Volume ¹			Market Share ¹
Segment	Nov-13	Nov-12	YOY %	Nov-13	Nov-12	YOY %
Mid-Size Car	170,000	166,716	2.0%	14.5%	14.6%	-0.1%
Compact Car	164,000	166,931	-1.8%	14.0%	14.6%	-0.6%
Compact Crossover	163,000	131,875	23.6%	13.9%	11.5%	2.3%
Full-Size Pickup Truck	146,000	135,029	8.1%	12.4%	11.8%	0.6%
Subcompact Car	44,000	45,408	-3.1%	3.7%	4.0%	-0.2%
Total ²	1,185,000	1,143,916	3.6%	-	-	-
¹ Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights
² Includes segments not shown

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About Kelley Blue Book (www.kbb.com)
Founded in 1926, Kelley Blue Book, The Trusted Resource®, is the only vehicle valuation and information source trusted and relied upon by both consumers and the automotive industry. Each week the company provides the most market-reflective values in the industry on its top-rated website KBB.com, including its famous Blue Book® Trade-In and Suggested Retail Values, and Fair Purchase Price, which reports what others are paying for new cars this week. The company also provides vehicle pricing and values through various products and services available to car dealers, auto manufacturers, finance and insurance companies, and governmental agencies. For two years running, Kelley Blue Book's KBB.com ranked highest in its category for brand equity and was named Online Auto Shopping Brand of the Year in the 2012 and 2013 Harris Poll EquiTrend^® study. Kelley Blue Book Co., Inc. is a subsidiary of AutoTrader Group, which includes AutoTrader.com, vAuto, VinSolutions and HomeNet Automotive. AutoTrader Group is a majority-owned subsidiary of Cox Enterprises.

SOURCE Kelley Blue Book