Nanotechnology for Photonics: Global Markets

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Nanotechnology for Photonics: Global Markets

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INTRODUCTION

STUDY BACKGROUND

Nanophotonics technologies play an increasingly important role in various sectors of the global economy. However, various technical, marketing and other hurdles need to be overcome before nanophotonics can realize their full potential.

Most analyses of the nanophotonics market focus on the development of new nanophotonics technologies and applications, rather than quantifying the potential market for these technologies. These analyses have made valuable contributions to raising investors' awareness of and interest in nanophotonics.

However, these analyses by themselves do not provide sufficient information to guide corporate or individual investment decisions. Investors require additional information, such as the size of specific nanophotonics markets, prices, competition, and potential regulation, as provided in this report.

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

This report is an update of an earlier BCC Research report, published in 2006. Its goal is to provide investors and others with the latest information on the commercial potential of various nanophotonics technologies and to complement the growing body of technical information. Specific objectives include identifying segments of the nanophotonics market with the greatest commercial potential in the near to mid-term (2011-2016), projecting future demand in these segments and evaluating the challenges that must be overcome for each segment to realize its potential in order to estimate the probability of successful commercialization.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

This report is intended especially for entrepreneurs, investors, venture capitalists and other readers who need to know where the nanophotonics market is headed in the next five years. Other readers who should find the report particularly valuable include nanotechnology marketing executives and government officials associated with the U.S. National Nanotechnology Initiative and other government programs to promote the development of the nanotechnology industry. The report's findings and conclusions should also be of interest to the broader nanotechnology community.

SCOPE AND FORMAT

The study addresses the global market for nanophotonics devices. Nanophotonic devices are defined as devices that interact with light at the nanoscale level. ("Nanoscale" is defined as having at least one dimension measuring less than 100 nanometers, or billionths of a meter.)

As defined above, nanophotonics are closely related to nano-optoelectronics. Many photonic devices, such as diodes, are also commonly classified as optoelectronic devices. This study does not exclude any application that meets the basic definition of a photonic device, even if it is also classifiable as an optoelectronic device.

Major types of nanoscale devices covered in this report include optical fiber, channel add/drop filters, optical switches and gates, light-emitting diodes, optical amplifiers, solar cells and holographic memory. The report format includes the following major elements:

Executive summary

Definitions

Milestones in the development of nanophotonics

Current and potential nanophotonics applications

Applications and end-users with the greatest commercial potential through 2016

Global nanophotonics market trends, 2010-2016

Factors that will influence the long-term development of nanophotonics

Market shares and industry structure

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

Projecting the market for emerging technologies such as most nanophotonics devices, whose commercial potential has not yet been proven, is a challenging task, which may help to explain why most analysts so far have focused on technology assessments. This report uses a multi-phase approach to identify the nanophotonics applications and devices with the greatest commercial potential and quantify the resulting market for these devices, as described below.

In the first phase of the analysis, we identified a "long list" of potential nanophotonics applications (including applications that are still under development) and mapped them against potential applications such as data storage, computing, sensing and others.

In the second phase, we eliminated those nanophotonics applications and devices that appear to have little likelihood of making it into commercial production in the next five years, determined by a literature review and statements from industry sources. The result of phase two was a "short list" of devices with the greatest near- to mid-term commercial potential.

The third phase focused on quantifying the potential broader market for each short-listed nanophotonics device and identifying the main prerequisites for commercial success. Various methodologies and data sources were used to develop the projections, including trend line projections, input-output analysis and estimates of future demand from industry sources. Dozens of industry sources were consulted in the preparation of this report.

ANALYST CREDENTIALS

Andrew McWilliams, the author of this report, is a partner in the Boston-based international technology and marketing consulting firm, 43rd Parallel LLC. He is also the author of numerous Business Communications Co. reports, including the predecessor to this report as well as several related market assessments, such as NAN031D Nanotechnology: A Realistic Market Assessment, NAN021D Nanocomposites, Nanoparticles, Nanoclays, and Nanotubes, and AVM067A Metamaterials: Technologies and Global Markets.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION . 1

STUDY BACKGROUND 1

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES . 1

INTENDED AUDIENCE 1

SCOPE AND FORMAT 2

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES. 2

ANALYST CREDENTIALS 3

RELATED BCC RESEARCH REPORTS . 3

BCC ONLINE SERVICES 4

DISCLAIMER . 4

CHAPTER TWO: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 5

SUMMARY TABLE NANOPHOTONIC DEVICES MARKET, THROUGH

2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 5

SUMMARY FIGURE NANOPHOTONIC DEVICES MARKET, 2010-2016

($ MILLIONS) 6

CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW 7

GENERAL DESCRIPTION 7

DEFINITIONS . 7

Photonics 7

Nanophotonics . 7

BRIEF HISTORY OF PHOTONICS 8

Brief History of Photonics (Continued) . 9

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 10

TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS 10

TABLE 1 PHOTONICS TECHNOLOGY PLATFORMS 11

Photonic Crystals . 11

Description 11

FIGURE 1 PHOTONIC CRYSTAL STRUCTURE . 12

Properties 13

Two Dimensional vs. Three Dimensional

Crystals 13

FIGURE 2 2D VS. 3D PHOTONIC CRYSTALS . 14

Defects . 14

FIGURE 3 PHOTONIC CRYSTAL POINT DEFECT 15

Composition . 15

Static vs. Tunable Crystals . 16

Applications . 16

Fabrication 17

Micromachining . 18

Microlithographic Techniques . 18

Layer-by-Layer Fabrication 19

FIGURE 4 "WOODPILE" STRUCTURE . 19

Autocloning . 20

FIGURE 5 AUTOCLONED CRYSTAL STRUCTURE . 21

Holographic Lithography . 21

Multibeam Interference Lithography . 22

Glancing Angle Deposition 22

Stack Methods . 23

Low Temperature Deposition . 23

Self-Assembly 24

Opal Method 24

Other Self-Assembly Techniques . 24

Drawing and Extruding 25

Patents 26

FIGURE 6 TRENDS IN U.S. PHOTONIC CRYSTAL PATENTS, 2000–

2011 (NUMBER OF PATENTS) 26

TABLE 2 PHOTONIC PATENTS BY PATENT HOLDER (NUMBER/%

OF PATENTS) 27

FIGURE 7 LEADING PHOTONIC CRYSTAL PATENT HOLDERS

(PERCENT OF PATENTS) . 28

Manufacturers . 28

TABLE 3 PHOTONIC CRYSTAL MANUFACTURERS 29

Nanowires 29

Description 29

Properties 30

Applications . 30

Fabrication 30

Patents 31

TABLE 4 U.S. NANOWIRE PATENTS BY PATENT HOLDER

(NUMBER/% OF PATENTS) . 31

FIGURE 8 LEADING NANOWIRE PATENT HOLDERS (PERCENT OF

U.S. PATENTS) 32

Nanoribbons . 32

Description 32

Properties 33

Applications . 33

Fabrication 33

Patents 33

Nanotubes 34

Description 34

Photonic Properties . 34

Photonic Applications . 35

Fabrication 35

Patents 36

TABLE 5 U.S. PATENTS RELATING TO PHOTONIC APPLICATIONS

OF CARBON NANOTUBES BY PATENT HOLDER (NUMBER/% OF

PATENTS) 37

FIGURE 9 LEADING HOLDERS OF U.S. PATENTS RELATING TO

PHOTONIC APPLICATIONS OF CARBON NANOTUBES (PERCENT

OF U.S. PATENTS) 37

Quantum Dots . 38

Description 38

Properties 38

Applications . 39

Biomarkers 39

Light-Emitting Diodes 40

Displays 41

Lasers 41

Optical Switches and Gates . 42

Optical Amplifiers 42

Memory Devices . 43

Quantum Computing . 43

Photovoltaics 44

Digital Image Sensors 45

Fabrication 45

Colloidal Synthesis 45

Epitaxy 46

Printed Quantum Dot Films . 46

Patents 46

FIGURE 10 QUANTUM DOT PATENTS BY TYPE OF PATENT

(PERCENT OF TOTAL PATENTS) 47

FIGURE 11 QUANTUM DOT PATENT INVENTORS AND ASSIGNEES

(PERCENT OF TOTAL PATENTS) 48

FIGURE 12 QUANTUM DOT PATENTS BY NATIONALITY OF

INVENTOR OR ASSIGNEE (PERCENT OF TOTAL PATENTS) 49

Manufacturers . 49

TABLE 6 QUANTUM DOT MANUFACTURERS 50

Plasmonics . 50

Description 50

Properties 51

Applications . 51

Fabrication 52

Patents 53

TABLE 7 SELECTED U.S. PLASMONICS-RELATED PATENTS . 53

Polymer Thin Films . 54

Description 54

Properties 54

Applications . 54

Fabrication 55

Patents 56

FIGURE 13 ELECTROLUMINESCENT POLYMER PATENT HOLDERS

(PERCENT OF TOTAL PATENTS) 57

Manufacturers . 57

TABLE 8 COMPANIES INVOLVED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF

POLYMER THIN FILMS FOR OLED APPLICATIONS . 58

Rare Earth Doped Metal Oxide Nanophosphors 58

Description 58

Properties 59

Applications . 60

Fabrication 60

Patents 60

FIGURE 14 RARE EARTH DOPED METAL OXIDE NANOPHOSPHOR

TECHNOLOGY PATENT HOLDERS (PERCENT OF TOTAL

PATENTS) 61

Manufacturers . 62

TABLE 9 COMPANIES INVOLVED IN NANOPHOSPHOR

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT 62

NANOPHOTONIC DEVICES . 63

TABLE 10 NANOPHOTONIC DEVICES . 63

Channel Add/Drop Filters . 64

Description 64

Limitations of Conventional Channel Add/Drop

Filters . 64

Nano-Photonics Technologies . 64

Applications . 65

Patents 65

Manufacturers . 66

TABLE 11 PHOTONIC CRYSTAL DROP FILTER MANUFACTURERS 66

Optical Switches and Gates 66

Description 66

Limitations of Conventional Switches and Gates . 66

Nano-Photonics Technologies . 67

Applications . 67

Patents 68

FIGURE 15 QUANTUM DOT SWITCH AND GATE PATENTS

(PERCENT OF TOTAL PATENTS) 68

Manufacturers . 69

TABLE 12 MANUFACTURERS PURSUING QUANTUM DOT

SWITCHES 69

Light-Emitting Diodes . 69

Description 69

Limitations of Conventional LEDs. 70

Nano-Photonic Technologies 71

Quantum Dots . 71

Carbon Nanotubes 72

Rare Earth Doped Metal Oxide

Nanophosphors 73

Organic Light Emitting Diodes 73

Organic (Continued) 74

Applications . 75

Lighting . 76

Bioassays . 77

Flat Panel Displays . 77

Flat …(Continued) . 78

Lasers . 79

Patents 80

FIGURE 16 LIGHT EMITTING DIODE PATENTS (PERCENT OF

TOTAL PATENTS) 80

FIGURE 16 (CONTINUED). 81

FIGURE 17 MAJOR LIGHT EMITTING DIODE PATENT HOLDERS

(PERCENT OF TOTAL PATENTS) 81

FIGURE 17 (CONTINUED). 82

Manufacturers . 82

TABLE 13 LIGHT EMITTING DIODE MANUFACTURERS . 82

FIGURE 18 OLED DISPLAY MARKET SHARES, 2010 (PERCENT OF

TOTAL MARKETS 83

Optical Amplifiers 84

Description 84

Nanophotonic Technologies 84

Applications . 85

Patents 85

TABLE 14 QUANTUM DOT OPTICAL AMPLIFIER PATENTS AND

APPLICATIONS 86

Manufacturers . 86

TABLE 15 COMPANIES INVOLVED IN QUANTUM DOT OPTICAL

AMPLIFIER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 86

Nanophotonic Solar Cells 87

Description 87

Limitations of Conventional Solar Cells 87

Nano-Photonic Technologies 87

Nanocrystalline Ti02 DSSCs . 87

Quantum Dot Solar Cells . 88

Intermediate-Band gap Solar Cells 88

Infrared Solar Cells . 89

Multilayered Silicon Quantum Dot Solar Cells . 89

Applications . 90

Patents 90

Manufacturers . 90

TABLE 16 COMPANIES DEVELOPING NANOPHOTONIC PV

TECHNOLOGIES 90

Holographic Memory . 91

Description 91

Limitations of Existing Technologies . 92

Nanophotonic Technologies 92

Applications . 93

Patents 93

TABLE 17 FERROELECTRIC STORAGE NANOTECHNOLOGY

PATENTS . 93

TABLE 17 (CONTINUED) . 94

Manufacturers . 94

Near-field Optics 94

Description 94

Limitations of Conventional Microscopes 95

Nanophotonic Technologies 95

FIGURE 19 SCANNING NEAR-FIELD OPTICAL MICROSCOPE

PRINCIPLES . 95

Applications . 96

Patents 96

Manufacturers . 96

TABLE 18 SCANNING NEAR-FIELD OPTICAL MICROSCOPE

MANUFACTURERS 97

CHAPTER FOUR: GLOBAL MARKET FOR NANOPHOTONICS DEVICES . 98

OVERALL MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION 98

FIGURE 20 GLOBAL SALES OF NANOPHOTONIC DEVICES, 2010–

2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 98

FIGURE 21 NANOPHOTONICS MAJOR MARKET SEGMENTS, 2010–

2016 (%) 99

FIGURE 21 (CONTINUED). 100

TABLE 19 GLOBAL NANOPHOTONICS SALES BY DEVICE TYPE,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 100

DETAILED MARKET ANALYSIS . 101

MARKET BY TYPE OF NANOPHOTONIC DEVICE . 101

Nanophotonic Diodes . 101

Historical Sales . 101

FIGURE 22 NANODIODE SALES BY TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM, 2010

(PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL SHARES) 102

Market Drivers 102

Sales of OLED Flat Panel Displays . 103

TABLE 20 GLOBAL FLAT PANEL DISPLAY SALES PROJECTIONS,

THROUGH 2016 ($ BILLIONS) 103

FIGURE 23 PROJECTED GLOBAL FLAT PANEL DISPLAY SALES

TRENDS, 2010–2016 ($ BILLIONS) . 103

Sales of Nanotube FED Devices . 104

Medical Detection and Imaging . 105

TABLE 21 GLOBAL FLUORESCENCE-BASED BIOLOGICAL

PRODUCT SALES, THROUGH 2016 ($ BILLIONS) . 105

FIGURE 24 GLOBAL MARKET FOR FLUORESCENCE-BASED

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, 2010–2016 . 106

Lighting . 106

Lasers . 107

Projected Sales . 107

TABLE 22 PROJECTED SALES OF NANODIODES, THROUGH 2016 ($

MILLIONS) 107

FIGURE 25 NANODIODE MARKET SEGMENTED BY TECHNOLOGY

PLATFORM, 2010–2016 (%) 108

OLEDs 109

Quantum Dots 109

TABLE 23 QUANTUM DOT NANODIODE MARKET BY APPLICATION,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 110

Nanotubes 110

Rare Earth Doped Metal Oxide

Nanophosphors . 110

TABLE 24 RARE EARTH DOPED METAL OXIDE NANOPHOSPHOR

MARKET BY APPLICATION, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 111

Photonic Switches 111

Historical Market 111

Market Drivers 111

Optical Switch Market 111

TABLE 25 GLOBAL OPTICAL SWITCH SALES, THROUGH 2011 ($

BILLIONS) . 112

FIGURE 26 OPTICAL SWITCH MARKET TRENDS, 2010–2016 ($

BILLIONS) . 112

Competition from Other Optical Switching

Technologies . 112

Projected Sales . 113

TABLE 26 PROJECTED NANOPHOTONIC OPTICAL SWITCH SALES,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 113

Nanophotonic Integrated Circuits 113

Historical Sales . 113

Market Drivers 114

Photonic Integrated Circuit Market Trends 114

TABLE 27 GLOBAL PHOTONIC IC SALES, THROUGH 2016 ($

BILLIONS) . 114

FIGURE 27 PHOTONIC INTEGRATED CIRCUIT SALES TRENDS,

2010–2016 ($ BILLIONS) 114

Pace of NPIC Technology Take-Up . 115

Projected Sales . 115

TABLE 28 PROJECTED NANOPHOTONIC INTEGRATED CIRCUIT

SALES, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 115

Holographic Memory . 115

Historical Sales . 115

Market Drivers 116

Market for High Density/High Access Speed

Data Storage 116

Competing Holographic Storage Technologies 116

Projected Market . 116

TABLE 29 PROJECTED NANOPHOTONIC HOLOGRAPHIC MEMORY

SALES, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 117

Nanophotonic Solar Cells 117

Historical Sales . 117

Market Drivers 117

Projected Sales 118

TABLE 30 PROJECTED NANOPHOTONIC PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL

SALES, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 118

Nano-Optical Sensors 118

Market Drivers 118

Projected Market . 119

TABLE 31 GLOBAL MARKET FOR QUANTUM DOT IMAGE SENSORS,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 119

Optical Amplifiers 119

Historical Sales . 119

Market Drivers 119

Projected Sales 119

TABLE 32 GLOBAL MARKET FOR NANOPHOTONIC OPTICAL

AMPLIFIERS, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 120

Add/Drop Filters 120

Historical Sales . 120

Market Drivers 120

Projected Sales 120

TABLE 33 GLOBAL MARKET FOR PHOTONIC CRYSTAL ADD/DROP

FILTERS, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 121

Near-Field Microscopes . 121

Historical Sales . 121

Market Drivers 121

Projected Market . 121

Market by Application Area . 122

FIGURE 28 MARKET FOR NANOPHOTONIC DEVICES BY

APPLICATION AREA, 2010–2016 (%) 123

FIGURE 28 (CONTINUED). 124

CHAPTER FIVE: COMPANY PROFILES 125

AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES . 125

APPLIED PLASMONICS, INC. . 125

BAYER CORP.INDUSTRIAL CHEMICALS DIVISION 126

BIOCRYSTAL, LTD. . 126

BOSTON MICROMACHINES CORPORATION 126

EKA CHEMICALS COLLOIDAL SILICA GROUPS 127

LUXTERA, INC. 127

CABOT CORP. 127

CAMBRIDGE DISPLAY TECHNOLOGY . 128

CARBON NANOTECHNOLOGIES INC. 128

CARBON NANOTECH RESEARCH INSTITUTE INC. 128

COLOSSAL STORAGE CORP. 129

CLARENDON PHOTONICS INC. . 129

E. I. DU PONT DE NEMOURS AND COMPANY 129

EASTMAN KODAK CO. . 130

EVIDENT TECHNOLOGIES . 130

FORGE EUROPA LTD. 131

G24 INNOVATIONS, LTD. 131

HEWLETT-PACKARD . 132

HYPERION CATALYSIS INTERNATIONAL INC. . 132

IBM CORP. 133

INNOLUME GMBH . 133

INVISAGE TECHNOLOGIES . 134

MERCK OLED MATERIALS GMBH 134

NALCO CHEMICAL CO. . 134

NANOSTRUCTURED & AMORPHOUS MATERIALS INC. . 135

NANOCARBLAB7 136

NANOCEROX, INC. . 136

NANOCO TECHNOLOGIES LTD. 136

NANOCRYSTALS TECHNOLOGY LTD 137

NANOCYL SA . 137

NANOGRAM CORP. . 137

NANOLAB INC. 138

NANOSPECTRA BIOSCIENCES INC. . 138

NANOSPECTRA BIOSCIENCES INC. (CONTINUED) 139

NANOSYS INC. 140

NEOPHOTONICS . 140

OMNIGUIDE INC. . 141

OMNIPV INC. . 141

OSRAM OPTO SEMICONDUCTORS GMBH . 142

PHILIPS LUMILEDS LIGHTING COMPANY . 142

POLATIS, INC. . 142

QD VISION, INC. . 143

QUANTUM DOT CORP. 143

RITDISPLAY CORP. 144

SAMSUNG SDI CO., LTD. . 144

SHENZHEN NANOTECH PORT CO. . 144

UNIVERSAL DISPLAY CORP. 144

XEROX CORP. 145

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