Mitt Romney Leads Republican Pack, but One-Quarter of Republicans Not Sure Who Their Primary Pick Would Be
Rudy Giuliani only possible Republican to beat President Obama, but Romney makes it a 2-point race
NEW YORK, May 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The 2012 Republican primary field is an ever changing and fluid one. The first primary is less than ten months away and there is clearly still no front-runner. Some who could have claimed that mantle, such as Mike Huckabee, have made the decision to not move forward with a run this year. Others who were grabbing a lot of the spotlight thanks to media attention, such as Donald Trump, also have decided not to run. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is the "front runner" right now with 14% of his party saying they would vote for him in the primary followed by Mike Huckabee (12%) and Newt Gingrich (10%). Even among Republicans, no other candidate garners over 8% of the vote and one-quarter (23%) are not at all sure.
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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,184 adults surveyed online between May 9 and 16, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Three in ten Conservatives (29%) are also not at all sure who they would vote for, while Romney and Huckabee each get 12% of the Conservative vote. No other potential Republican candidate gets above 9%. Among Independents, a different person leads the pack – Ron Paul garners 10% of Independents' votes in the GOP primary followed by Mitt Romney (9%); two in four Independents (39%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary. Among those who support the Tea Party, 12% would vote for Mitt Romney and 11% for Mike Huckabee while 22% are not at all sure.
On the flip side, there are certain possible Republican candidates who people would never vote for in a primary. It may be a good thing he decided not to run as two in four Republicans say they would never vote for Donald Trump (39%). Three in ten Republicans would never vote for Sarah Palin, while almost one-quarter (22%) would never vote for Ron Paul. Just under one in five Republicans say they would never vote for Michele Bachmann (18%), Newt Gingrich (18%) and Jon Huntsman (17%). Among Independents, three in five say they would never vote for Sarah Palin (60%) and Donald Trump (59%), while two in five would never vote for Newt Gingrich (40%).
Republicans versus President Obama
Looking at possible Republican candidates, two do well against President Obama but only one possible Republican candidate would beat the President right now. In a head to head match up, 51% of Americans would vote for Rudy Giuliani while 49% would vote to re-elect President Obama. Mitt Romney is on the other side of those numbers as 49% would vote for the former Massachusetts governor while 51% would vote to re-elect the President. Among other declared or potential Republican candidates, Ron Paul does next best (45% vs. 55% for the President), then Newt Gingrich (44% vs. 56%), Mitch Daniels (43% vs. 57%), Gary Johnson (43% vs. 57%), and Rick Santorum (43% vs. 57%). Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin would each get 42% of the vote and Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman and Donald Trump would each get 41%.
So What?
Almost half of Americans say they are not likely to vote to re-elect President Obama if the election were held today. However, it is clear that among his possible challengers, there is clearly no one candidate who is ahead of the others. While voters may be slightly disenchanted with the President right now, if at least a few Republicans fail to pull ahead of the pack soon, there may not be enough time for them to make the case why they are the better candidate for next November. At least the media is done with the Donald and his potential run.
TABLE 1 Base: All adults |
||||||||||
Total March 2011 |
Total May 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
Tea Party |
||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Mitt Romney |
10 |
10 |
14 |
9 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
6 |
12 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
8 |
8 |
12 |
4 |
8 |
12 |
6 |
4 |
11 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
8 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
4 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
|
Donald Trump |
10 |
7 |
8 |
6 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
7 |
|
Ron Paul |
NA |
6 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
6 |
5 |
9 |
7 |
|
Sarah Palin |
7 |
5 |
8 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
5 |
4 |
10 |
1 |
3 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
9 |
|
Herman Cain |
NA |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
* |
2 |
5 |
|
Mitch Daniels |
2 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
NA |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
Gary Johnson |
NA |
1 |
* |
1 |
2 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Rick Santorum |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
* |
|
Not at all sure |
45 |
42 |
23 |
56 |
39 |
29 |
49 |
48 |
22 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll. |
||||||||||
TABLE 2A Base: All adults |
|||
Would vote for |
|||
President |
The Republican |
||
% |
% |
||
Donald Trump |
59 |
41 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
59 |
41 |
|
Herman Cain |
59 |
41 |
|
Sarah Palin |
58 |
42 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
58 |
42 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
58 |
42 |
|
Rick Santorum |
57 |
43 |
|
Gary Johnson |
57 |
43 |
|
Mitch Daniels |
57 |
43 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
56 |
44 |
|
Ron Paul |
55 |
45 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
52 |
48 |
|
Mitt Romney |
51 |
49 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
49 |
51 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
|||
TABLE 2B Base: All adults |
||||||||||
Total March 2011 |
Total May 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
Tea Party Support |
||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Rudy Giuliani |
51 |
51 |
86 |
19 |
54 |
81 |
45 |
15 |
86 |
|
Mitt Romney |
49 |
49 |
87 |
16 |
52 |
82 |
42 |
9 |
85 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
48 |
48 |
87 |
15 |
49 |
80 |
40 |
14 |
85 |
|
Ron Paul |
NA |
45 |
78 |
14 |
49 |
78 |
36 |
10 |
79 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
44 |
44 |
82 |
11 |
45 |
77 |
34 |
12 |
81 |
|
Mitch Daniels |
44 |
43 |
78 |
11 |
45 |
74 |
34 |
12 |
81 |
|
Gary Johnson |
NA |
43 |
78 |
11 |
44 |
76 |
32 |
12 |
78 |
|
Rick Santorum |
43 |
43 |
78 |
12 |
43 |
75 |
33 |
10 |
79 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
41 |
42 |
78 |
10 |
43 |
75 |
32 |
12 |
78 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
44 |
42 |
78 |
12 |
42 |
76 |
32 |
10 |
77 |
|
Sarah Palin |
42 |
42 |
78 |
13 |
38 |
77 |
30 |
11 |
76 |
|
Herman Cain |
NA |
41 |
78 |
11 |
40 |
75 |
31 |
10 |
77 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
NA |
41 |
77 |
11 |
41 |
74 |
32 |
9 |
76 |
|
Donald Trump |
45 |
41 |
72 |
15 |
39 |
69 |
32 |
13 |
73 |
|
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll. |
||||||||||
TABLE 3 Base: All adults |
|||||||||
Total May 2011 |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
Tea Party Support |
||||||
Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
||||
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
||
Donald Trump |
58 |
39 |
74 |
59 |
49 |
59 |
74 |
40 |
|
Sarah Palin |
57 |
30 |
78 |
60 |
32 |
64 |
82 |
28 |
|
Newt Gingrich |
41 |
18 |
61 |
40 |
22 |
43 |
68 |
23 |
|
Michele Bachmann |
34 |
18 |
52 |
31 |
18 |
37 |
58 |
20 |
|
Ron Paul |
31 |
22 |
43 |
26 |
20 |
32 |
48 |
21 |
|
Rick Santorum |
27 |
15 |
42 |
24 |
16 |
26 |
52 |
16 |
|
Herman Cain |
26 |
16 |
37 |
25 |
18 |
26 |
42 |
19 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
26 |
13 |
35 |
26 |
19 |
22 |
47 |
17 |
|
Mike Huckabee |
25 |
9 |
42 |
21 |
10 |
27 |
49 |
12 |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
25 |
17 |
34 |
21 |
17 |
24 |
41 |
20 |
|
Gary Johnson |
25 |
16 |
36 |
21 |
17 |
25 |
40 |
19 |
|
Tim Pawlenty |
24 |
12 |
38 |
19 |
13 |
25 |
43 |
15 |
|
Mitch Daniels |
24 |
14 |
34 |
21 |
15 |
24 |
40 |
17 |
|
Mitt Romney |
23 |
9 |
38 |
19 |
11 |
24 |
43 |
12 |
|
Note: Multiple responses accepted |
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Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between May 9 to 16, 2011 among 2,184 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
J40013
Q1225, 1226, 1228
The Harris Poll® #61, May 23, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
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SOURCE Harris Interactive
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