NEW YORK, Oct. 15, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
http://www.reportlinker.com/p0152527/Libya-Oil-and-Gas-Report-Q4-2012.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=Oil_and_Gas_energy
Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates.
BMI View: We expect oil and gas production to bounce back strongly in 2012, despite the obvious
political risks associated with Libya's transition to a new democratic government. Over the longer term,
both oil and gas volumes are likely to increase beyond pre-war levels as new investment flows into underexplored
areas – especially the offshore Sirte Basin.
TheKey Trends And Developments in Libya's oil & gas sector are:
- We forecast total liquids production of 1.62mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, rising to 1.77mn
b/d in 2016 and 1.85mn b/d by 2021. Gas output is forecast to increase from 5.96bn cubic metres
(bcm) in 2012 to 16.45bcm by 2016 and 19.26bcm by 2021.
- These forecasts are subject to upside risks depending on the level of upstream investment. The
new democratic government has pledged to invest US$10bn raising oil and gas production
capacity from existing fields and US$20bn on new exploration over the next 10 years, according
to oil and gas minister, Abdurahman Benyezza. If that materialises, output could well increase
beyond our long-term projections.
- International investment is also a big unknown. Foreign suitors are likely to be attracted by
Libya's vast oil and gas reserves, which stood at an estimated at 44.1bn barrels (bbl) and 1.56trn
cubic metres (tcm) respectively in 2011. However, clear political risks, the introduction of new
production sharing contracts (PSC), and a revised hydrocarbons law are all likely to affect the
country's business environment.
- Before the civil war, there was some 378,000b/d of refining capacity in Libya (according to
BMI's Downstream Projects Database). Throughput has been well below this level in H112
because the country's 220,000b/d Ras Lanuf facility remained shut-in until late August 2012.
Our forecasts point to a gradual restoration of refinery utilisation, with a return to pre-war levels
expected by end-2012.
- Oil and gas consumption is set to return to pre-war levels gradually because damage to
infrastructure is likely to lead to lower domestic demand from power generation. However, over
the longer term, reconstruction efforts are likely to drive economic growth and oil demand
higher.
At the time of writing, we forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, which we see
falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global real GDP growth for 2012 is forecast to be 2.6%, down from
3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and continuing concerns over the eurozone debt
crisis.
BMI Industry View... 7
SWOT Analysis ... 8
Libya Oil and Gas SWOT.. 8
Global Energy Market Outlook ... 9
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point .. 9
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000b/d)... 11
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 ('000b/d).. 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook. 17
Libya Energy Market Overview 21
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 23
Table: Libya Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecast, 2009-2016.. 23
Table: Libya Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 .. 24
Oil And Gas Reserves .. 25
Oil Supply And Demand... 27
Gas Supply And Demand . 28
LNG . 28
Refining And Oil Products Trade. 29
Revenues/Import Costs. 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure... 30
Oil Refineries ... 30
Table: Refineries In Libya... 30
Oil Terminals/Ports . 31
Oil Pipelines 31
LNG Terminals 32
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya.. 32
Gas Pipelines ... 32
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings .. 33
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings ... 36
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings... 36
Libya Upstream Rewards 37
Libya Upstream Risks . 37
Libya Downstream Scores .. 37
Competitive Landscape ... 38
Executive Summary.. 38
Table: Key Players – Libyan Oil And Gas Sector ... 39
Overview/State Role. 40
Licensing and Regulation 40
Tax Law .. 41
Government Policy . 42
Licensing Rounds 42
Fourth Licensing Round (First Gas Licensing Round) 42
Third Licensing Round 42
Second Licensing Round . 42
First Licensing Round. 43
International Energy Relations ... 43
Libya Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
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Table: Key Upstream Players . 44
Table: Key Downstream Player .. 44
Company Monitor . 45
National Oil Corporation (NOC). 45
Eni North Africa... 47
Total Libya... 49
OMV of Libya... 51
Repsol Libya 53
Marathon Oil ... 55
ConocoPhillips. 57
BP – Summary 59
ExxonMobil – Summary.. 59
Tatneft – Summary .. 59
Occidental Petroleum – Summary... 60
BG Group – Summary. 60
Hess – Summary.. 60
Woodside Petroleum – Summary 61
Chevron – Summary 61
Statoil – Summary... 61
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary. 62
Suncor – Summary .. 62
PGNiG – Summary . 63
Gazprom – Summary... 63
RWE – Summary . 63
Verenex Energy – Summary 64
Indian Oil/Oil India – Summary.. 64
Others – Summary .. 65
Africa – Regional Appendix. 66
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2009-2016 66
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2014-2021 67
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2009-2016 67
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2014-2021 68
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2009-2016... 69
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2014-2021... 69
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2009-2016 ... 70
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2014-2021 ... 70
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2009-2016... 71
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2014-2021... 72
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2009-2016 72
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2014-2021 73
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 74
Glossary Of Terms 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms... 75
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 77
Ratings Overview. 77
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure ... 78
Indicators. 79
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 79
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 80
Libya Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
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BMI Methodology.. 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 82
Energy Industry 82
Cross checks 83
Sources. 83
To order this report:
Oil_and_Gas_energy Industry: Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
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