J.D. Power and LMC Automotive Report: New-Vehicle Sales Continue Year-over-Year Growth

June Retail SAAR Is Expected to Reach Second-Highest Level Thus Far in 2014

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Jun 26, 2014, 01:00 ET

WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., June 26, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate (SAAR) for new light-vehicle retail sales in June will result in the fifth consecutive month of year-over-year growth, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

The retail SAAR in June is expected to be 13.3 million units, up slightly from 13.2 million in June 2013, and the second-highest monthly SAAR of 2014, trailing only May's SAAR of 14.1 million.

Retail Light-Vehicle Sales
Retail light-vehicle sales in June 2014 are projected to reach 1.1 million units, 6 percent higher than in June 2013 on a selling-day adjusted basis. Retail transactions are the most accurate measure of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles.

"It's important to recognize that June sales are being heavily influenced by a quirk of the industry sales calendar," said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power.

The auto industry reports sales on a sales-month basis rather than a calendar-month basis. The June 2014 sales month includes just 24 selling days, compared with 26 selling days in June 2013. Humphrey noted that due to this difference in the sales reporting calendar in 2014, it makes sense to evaluate May and June sales in combination.

"When combined, May and June retail sales are expected to be up 7.2 percent, compared with May and June 2013, which underscores the continued positive trajectory in growth and overall health of the industry," said Humphrey.

Total Light-Vehicle Sales
Total light-vehicle sales in June 2014 are expected to approach 1.4 million units, a 5 percent increase from June 2013. The pace of fleet volume growth continues to be lower than retail, with a 1 percent increase year over year, accounting for 19 percent of total sales in June.

J.D. Power and LMC Automotive U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons

	June 2014¹	May 2014	June 2013
New-Vehicle Retail Sales	1,104,600 units (6% higher than June 2013)²	1,321,057 units	1,128,935 units
Total Vehicle Sales	1,359,900 units (5% higher than June 2013)	1,605,373 units	1,402,408 units
Retail SAAR	13.3 million units	14.1 million units	13.2 million units
Total SAAR	16.3 million units	16.7 million units	15.9 million units

¹Figures cited for June 2014 are forecasted based on the first 17 selling days of the month.
²The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days in the month (24 days in June 2014 vs. 26 days in June 2013).

Sales Outlook
With the combination of May's strong performance and June holding above the year-to-date selling pace of 15.9 million units, LMC Automotive is raising its 2014 light-vehicle retail sales forecast to 13.4 million units from 13.3 million and its total light-vehicle forecast to 16.2 million units from 16.1 million.

Supporting volume above 16 million units is a 55 percent increase in new-model activity in 2014 from 2013. Virtually every vehicle segment has fresh models in dealer showrooms, with activity in the small premium car and SUV segments accounting for more than 10 percent of all new models.

North American Production
New-vehicle production in North America through May has increased 175,000 vehicles (2.5%), compared with the same time frame in 2013. Automakers in May 2014 built 1.5 million vehicles, a 4.0 percent increase from April 2014 and a 1.5 percent jump from May 2013. LMC Automotive projects that third quarter production will come in at slightly more than 4.1 million vehicles, the highest third quarter level on record. LMC Automotive maintains its 2014 North American production forecast at 16.6 million units, a 3 percent increase from 2013.

Strong sales in May helped manufacturers continue to clear inventory, as days' supply fell to 60 days from 69 days and inventory decreased by 125,000 units. Every major manufacturer with the exception of Daimler has been able to reduce or maintain inventory levels from April.

"The U.S. auto market is arguably in the best position and health it has been in since well before the great recession," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting at LMC Automotive. "Sales are robust and stabilizing above a 16-million-unit pace and are back in balance with production levels, keeping inventory in check. While GDP growth remains below ideal levels, the auto market continues to be instrumental in helping drive the economy."

About J.D. Power
J.D. Power is a global marketing information services company providing performance improvement, social media and customer satisfaction insights and solutions. The company's quality and satisfaction measurements are based on responses from millions of consumers annually. Headquartered in Westlake Village, Calif., J.D. Power has offices in North/South America, Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information on car reviews and ratings, car insurance, health insurance, cell phone ratings, and more, please visit www.JDPower.com. J.D. Power is a business unit of McGraw Hill Financial.

About McGraw Hill Financial
McGraw Hill Financial is a leading financial intelligence company providing the global capital and commodity markets with independent benchmarks, credit ratings, portfolio and enterprise risk solutions, and analytics. The Company's iconic brands include Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, S&P Capital IQ, S&P Dow Jones Indices, Platts, CRISIL, J.D. Power and McGraw Hill Construction. The Company has approximately 17,000 employees in 29 countries. Additional information is available at www.mhfi.com.

About LMC Automotive
LMC Automotive, formerly J.D. Power Automotive Forecasting, is the premier supplier of automotive forecasts and intelligence to an extensive client base of automotive manufacturers, component suppliers, logistics and distribution companies, as well as financial and government institutions around the world. LMC's global forecasting services encompass automotive sales, production and powertrain expertise, as well as advisory capability. LMC Automotive has offices in the United States, the UK, Germany, China and Thailand and is part of the Oxford, UK-based LMC group, the global leader in economic and business consultancy for the agribusiness sector. For more information please visit www.lmc-auto.com.

Media Relations Contacts
John Tews; J.D. Power; Troy, Mich.; 248-680-6218; [email protected]
Emmie Littlejohn; LMC Automotive; Troy, Mich.; 248-817-2100; [email protected]

No advertising or other promotional use can be made of the information in this release without the express prior written consent of J.D. Power or LMC Automotive. www.jdpower.com/corporate www.lmc-auto.com

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SOURCE J.D. Power