India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts

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Aug 19, 2013, 08:43 ET

NEW YORK, Aug. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

India - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts
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This report provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in India. Subjects covered include:

Key statistics;
Market and industry overviews;
Regulatory environment;
Major players (fixed and mobile);
Infrastructure development – national and international;
Digital media;
Mobile voice and data market;
Internet, including VoIP and IPTV;
Broadband services;
Regulatory environment;Telecom market forecasts for selected segments/years to 2020.Researcher:- Peter EvansCurrent publication date:- August 2013 (19th Edition)

India's telecom market feels the mobile sector turmoil as the shake-out from 2G scandal continues

India's massive mobile market entered a period of uncertainty in 2012 and this had continued into 2013. Whilst maintaining its ranking as one of the two largest telecom markets in the world (not surprisingly the other being China), India has looked anything but the strong market it was two years earlier. A number of factors have contributed to this situation. The Supreme Court decision in February 2012 that saw the large scale cancellation of operator licences and the subsequent response of the regulators to the court orders set the scene for the market uncertainty that followed. In the wake of the court decision and specifically the directive to re-auction the cancelled licences, a number of operators exited the market, whilst others were looking to rationalise their businesses. After a number of delays, the all-important re-auctioning of the cancelled 2G mobile licences took place in late 2012. This saw a disappointing outcome for the government with much of the spectrum on offer not even attracting bids, the high reserve prices clearly frightening off potential buyers. A further auction was held in March 2013 to sell off the remaining spectrum. Again the lack of bidder interest forced further postponements.

In the meantime a different kind of 'shake-out' was impacting on the mobile market. Operators had begun culling inactive prepaid subscribers from their customer databases; by mid-2012 this process had caused a major dislocation in the subscriber statistics and it was evident that the market would need time to adjust. The mobile sector had passed the 900 million subscriber mark by early 2012; by end-2012, however, the total subscriber numbers had fallen to around 860 million as the combined net effect of growth and culling was felt. Despite this dislocation, overall growth in the national subscriber base in the medium to long term was expected to continue at a strong rate; by mid-2013 the net subscriber numbers were increasing once more.

One of the reasons for the operators culling their databases was to lift Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). Mobile ARPU in India had been steadily declining over the years as competing operators offered cheaper tariffs; at the same time usage levels have remained reasonably high thus slowing the decline in revenues. At the same time, there had been a major push in recent years to take mobile services into the poorer and rural areas of the country; this inevitably weighed heavily on ARPU. Countering this trend, the long-awaited 3G licensing has seen networks across the country finally delivering mobile data services to customers. Although still struggling with coverage issues, 3G has started to see operators boosting revenue. By 2012 and into 2013 there were positive signs that the decline in ARPU was 'bottoming out' as operators began reporting increased ARPUs.

In the meantime, the fixed-line market, which had grown strongly over a number of years, began experiencing zero and then negative growth. Fixed-line subscriber numbers stood at 31 million by early 2013. With less than 3% fixed-line penetration, India has nevertheless achieved a remarkable national coverage, with 99% of the population having some form of access to a telephone. It has been the heavy investment in telecoms infrastructure over the last decade, plus a number of key regulatory initiatives that have combined to see India's huge population delivered at least some level of telephone service.
In terms of online access, there have been a number of efforts by the government to promote broadband internet throughout the country; broadband development had long been languishing, but there was new hope for a serious expansion phase in this segment of the market. By early 2013 there were around 15 million fixed broadband subscribers – a lowly penetration (by population) of slightly more than 1%. Meanwhile, the impact of mobile broadband was finally starting to hit the market and in the medium term this was expected to lift broadband penetration significantly.

Although facing serious functional and regulatory challenges, there is much that is positive to be found in India's telecom industry. Sweeping reforms introduced by successive governments over the last decade or so have dramatically changed the nature of telecommunications in the country. A number of factors have been responsible for the amazing growth in India's telecom sector; apart from the obvious booming economy and the rapid expansion in the country's middle class, the growth drivers include low tariffs, low handset prices and most notably a highly competitive market created by the government and the regulators. The government continued its commitment to opening up the market to more and more competition and investment. The launch of Mobile Number Portability (MNP) in 2011 added yet another dimension to what was already an intensely competitive market. The anticipated removal of the cap on foreign investment in the telecom sector in 2013 was yet another strong signal to the market of the government's intentions. The government has been continuing to push on a broad front to advance the restructuring of the telecommunications regulatory regime.

Key highlights

The year 2012 saw a significant 'correction' in India's mobile market, as operators removed inactive subscribers from their databases;
By end-2012 the country had 865 million mobile subscribers, for a penetration of 69%;
This was down from 895 million (penetration 72%) at end-2011;
By April 2013 there were 867 million subscribers as the market finally returned to positive growth;
GSM had further strengthened its position as the dominant mobile technology over CDMA with 91% of the mobile subscriber market coming into 2013;
The number of fixed broadband internet subscribers was steadily increasing, reaching 15 million for a penetration of just over 1% by population by the start of 2013;
DSL continued to hold the major portion of the local fixed broadband market: 85% by end-2012;
The market had witnessed a large scale roll-out of 3G networks by operators across the country following the long-delayed licensing;
However, 3G had not immediately delivered the expected boost to the market in terms of large scale adoption of mobile data services;
Nevertheless, mobile broadband was expanding rapidly and had quickly been established as a key form of broadband access;
Following the Supreme Court decision cancelling operator licences in February 2012, the re-auction of the vacant spectrum took place in late 2012 and early 2013;
The process was generally seen as a failure for the government as the auctions failed to attract the level of bids and bidders;The licence cancellations and subsequent re-auctioning of spectrum had been a major upheaval for India's telecom market place.Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year

1. Key Statistics
2. Country overview
2.1 Background
2.2 Economy
2.3 Analysis: India in the aftermath of the global financial crisis
2.4 Red tape
2.5 2G scandal
3. Telecommunications Market
3.1 Overview
3.2 Competition
3.3 Value Added Services (VAS)
3.4 Third Generation (3G) auction
3.5 WiMAX/wireless broadband spectrum auction
3.6 Foreign investment
3.6.1 Import of Chinese telecom equipment
3.7 Universal service
4. Regulatory Environment
4.1 Telecommunications authorities
4.1.1 Ministry for Communications (MoC)
4.1.2 Department of Telecommunications (DoT)
4.1.3 Telecom Commission
4.1.4 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)
4.1.5 Telecom Dispute Settlement & Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)
4.1.6 Telecom Sector Ombudsman (TSO)
4.1.7 Communications Commission of India (CCI)
4.2 Licensing circles
4.3 Regulatory developments

4.3.1 Overview
4.3.2 Value Added Services (VAS)
4.3.3 Blackberry
4.3.4 Subscriber Local Dialling (SLD)
4.3.5 Spectrum fees
4.3.6 Spectrum sharing
4.3.7 'Local content' rules
4.3.8 Supreme Court ruling on 'distribution of national assets'
4.3.9 Censorship issues
4.3.10 New spectrum policy
4.3.11 Tariffs
4.3.12 Penalties for delayed roll-out
4.3.13 Spectrum 'vacation'
4.3.14 Cancelled licences
4.3.15 Access Deficit Charge (ADC)
4.3.16 Unified Access Services Licence (UASL)
4.3.17 Basic Telephone Service (BTS) licensing guidelines
4.3.18 The 'fixed' mobile story - background
4.3.19 Offshore investment
4.3.20 The Blackberry privacy case
4.3.21 Spectrum charges
4.3.22 Spectrum in 2014
4.4 National Telecom Policies
4.4.1 National Telecom Policies 1999 (NTP-99)
4.4.2 Addendum to NTP-99
4.4.3 New National Telecom Policy
4.4.4 National Broadband Policy 2004
4.4.5 Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)
4.5 National security
5. Major Operators
5.1 Major operators in India
5.1.1 Market overview
5.1.2 Unified Access Service Licences (UASL)
5.1.3 Mergers and acquisitions
5.1.4 BSNL/MTNL

5.2 Operator and market statistics
5.2.1 Mobile market
5.2.2 Fixed-line market
5.3 Aircel/Dishnet
5.4 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL)
5.4.1 Overview
5.4.2 Mobile business
5.4.3 Fixed-line business
5.4.4 Broadband business
5.5 Bharti Airtel
5.5.1 Overview
5.5.2 Financials
5.5.3 Corporate structure
5.5.4 Mobile business
5.5.5 Fixed-line and broadband businesses
5.5.6 International businesses
5.6 Data Access
5.7 Hughes Telecom
5.8 Idea Cellular
5.8.1 Overview
5.8.2 Financials
5.8.3 Background
5.8.4 Corporate structure
5.8.5 3G development
5.9 Loop Mobile (formerly BPL Mobile)
5.9.1 Overview
5.9.2 Corporate structure and development
5.10 Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited (MTNL)
5.10.1 Overview
5.10.2 Corporate structure
5.10.3 Mobile business
5.10.4 Fixed-line and broadband business
5.11 Reliance Communications
5.11.1 Overview
5.11.2 Financials
5.11.3 Corporate structure
5.11.4 Mobile business
5.11.5 Fixed-line business

5.11.6 International business
5.12 Sistema
5.12.1 Overview
5.12.2 Mobile business
5.12.3 Fixed-line business
5.13 Tata Teleservices
5.13.1 Overview
5.13.2 Corporate structure
5.13.3 Mobile business
5.13.4 Fixed-line business
5.13.5 International business: Tata Communications
5.14 Uninor
5.14.1 Overview
5.14.2 Problems following 2G licence cancellation
5.15 Videocon
5.16 Vodafone Essar
5.16.1 Overview
5.16.2 Corporate structure
5.16.3 Tax dispute
5.16.4 Background
5.16.5 Strategic development
5.16.6 3G plans
5.17 Other operators and service providers
5.17.1 Mobile operators
5.17.2 Fixed network operators
5.17.3 Internet Service Providers (ISPs)
5.18 Former operators
5.18.1 Etisalat DB Telecom (Swan Telecom)
5.18.2 Spice Telecom
5.18.3 S Tel
6. Telecommunications Infrastructure
6.1 National infrastructure
6.1.1 Overview
6.1.2 Statistics
6.1.3 Background to network development
6.1.4 Infrastructure sharing
6.1.5 Rural and regional networks
6.1.6 Fibre optic cable projects
6.1.7 National optical fibre network
6.1.8 Wireless Local Loop (WLL) - background
6.2 Infrastructure developments
6.2.1 IP networks
6.2.2 Next Generation Networks (NGN)
6.3 International infrastructure
6.3.1 Background

6.3.2 Interconnect agreements
6.3.3 India-Pakistan
6.3.4 International service disruption
6.3.5 Submarine cable networks
6.3.6 Satellite communications
7. Internet Market
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Internet statistics
7.1.2 E-medicine
7.1.3 IPv4/IPv6
7.1.4 Cloud services
7.1.5 Growth issues
7.2 Regulatory issues
7.2.1 Internet policy: background
7.2.2 Internet policy: development
7.2.3 National Internet Exchange of India (NIXI)
7.2.4 Control of the internet in India
7.3 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
7.3.1 Foreign Exchange transactions
8. Broadband Market
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Broadband statistics
8.2 National Broadband Policy
8.2.1 Implementation of National Broadband Policy
8.3 National Broadband Plan
8.4 Broadband technologies
8.4.1 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)
8.4.2 Cable modem
8.4.3 Wireless broadband
8.4.4 WiMAX
8.4.5 WiMAX spectrum auctions
8.4.6 Long Term Evolution (LTE)
8.4.7 Mobile wireless
8.5 Satellite
9. Digital Media
9.1 Broadcasting Market

9.1.1 Overview
9.1.2 Digital media
9.1.3 Market statistics
9.1.4 Regulatory issues
9.2 TV and the transition to digital
9.2.1 Overview
9.2.2 Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)
9.2.3 Pay TV
9.2.4 Cable TV
9.2.5 Satellite TV
9.2.6 Major cable and pay TV operators
9.2.7 Free-to-Air TV
10. Mobile Communications
10.1 Overview of India's mobile market
10.2 Dramatic drop in mobile subscribers - 2012
10.3 Mobile statistics
10.4 Mobile handset / smartphone market
10.5 Mobile market - geographic segments
10.6 Development issues
10.6.1 Reporting of revenue
10.6.2 Tariffs for wireless broadband
10.6.3 Spectrum allocations and spectrum auctions
10.6.4 Rural expansion
10.7 Regulatory issues
10.7.1 Background
10.7.2 Merger and Acquisition (M&A) rules
10.7.3 Regulatory developments in 2013
10.7.4 Mobile Number Portability (MNP)
10.7.5 Regulatory developments in 2012
10.7.6 Regulatory developments in 2011
10.8 2G corruption scandal
10.8.1 Allegations
10.8.2 Charges
10.8.3 Court decision, appeal and aftermath
10.9 Analysis: 2G scandal - 2011
10.10 Re-auctioning of 2G spectrum
10.11 Mobile technologies
10.11.1 Overview of mobile technologies used in India
10.11.2 GSM
10.11.3 CDMA
10.11.4 Third Generation (3G) mobile
10.11.5 Fourth Generation (4G) / Long Term Evolution (LTE)
10.12 Mobile voice services
10.12.1 Prepaid
10.13 Mobile data services
10.13.1 Market overview
10.13.2 Short Message Service (SMS)
10.13.3 i-mode
10.13.4 BlackBerry
10.13.5 Mobile TV
10.13.6 Mobile content
11. Forecasts
11.1 Forecasts - Fixed-line services – 2015; 2020
11.2 Forecasts- Internet services – 2015; 2020
11.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2020

List of Tables

Table 1 – Country statistics India – 2013
Table 2 – Telecom revenue and investment statistics – 2011
Table 3 – Telephone network statistics – March 2013
Table 4 – Internet user statistics – 2012
Table 5 – Broadband statistics – 2012
Table 6 – Mobile statistics – April 2013
Table 7 – National telecommunications authorities
Table 8 – India's GDP real growth rate – 2006 - 2014
Table 9 – Fixed-line services versus mobile services and penetration – April 2013
Table 10 – Foreign Direct Investment in telecom sector – 2004 - 2012
Table 11 – Telephone services to villages – 2012
Table 12 – Number of telecom licences issued by category – 2007 - 2008
Table 13 – Mobile operators and subscribers – April 2013
Table 14 – Mobile operators and subscribers – 2012
Table 15 – Total mobile subscribers (GSM / CDMA) by operator and market share – April 2013
Table 16 – Total mobile subscribers (GSM / CDMA) by operator and market share – 2012
Table 17 – GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share – June 2013
Table 18 – CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share – 2012
Table 19 –Overall mobile ARPU – 2005 - 2012
Table 20 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2012
Table 21 – Mobile ARPU (blended) for selected operators – March 2013
Table 22 – Fixed-line subscribers by operator – 2008 - 2012
Table 23 – Aircel mobile subscribers – 2004 - 2013
Table 24 – BSNL mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 25 – BSNL fixed-line subscribers – 2002; 2012 - 2013
Table 26 – Bharti Airtel mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 27 – Bharti Airtel mobile ARPU – 2004 - 2005; 2007 - 2013
Table 28 – Bharti fixed-line subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 29 – Idea Cellular mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 30 – Idea Cellular mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2011

Table 31 – Loop Mobile (BPL) mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 32 – MTNL mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 33 – MTNL fixed-line subscribers – 2004; 2007; 2010 - 2013
Table 34 – Reliance mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 35 – Reliance mobile ARPU – 2007 - 2013
Table 36 – Reliance fixed-line subscribers – 2005 - 2013
Table 37 – Sistema mobile subscribers – 2008 - 2013
Table 38 – Sistema fixed-line subscribers – 2010 - 2013
Table 39 – Tata Teleservices mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2013
Table 40 – Tata fixed-line subscribers – 2011 - 2013
Table 41 – Uninor mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2013
Table 42 – Videocon mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2013
Table 43 – Vodafone Essar mobile subscribers – 2002 – 2013
Table 44 – Vodafone Essar mobile ARPU – 2008 - 2013
Table 45 – Number of licensed ISPs – 2002 – 2003; 2005; 2008 - 2012
Table 46 – ISP market – leading operators, subscribers and market share – 2012
Table 47 – Etisalat mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2012
Table 48 – Spice Telecom mobile subscribers – 2002 - 2008
Table 49 – S Tel mobile subscribers – 2009 - 2012
Table 50 – Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity – 2005 - 2013
Table 51 – Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) – 1995 - 2005
Table 52 – Growth of VPT scheme – 2001 - 2012
Table 53 – PCOs in operation – 2003 - 2012
Table 54 – PCOs in operation and market share by operator – 2012
Table 55 – Fixed WLL subscribers (historical) – 2004 - 2006
Table 56 – Internet users – 1995 - 2013
Table 57 – Fixed internet subscribers and penetration – 1995 - 2013
Table 58 – Fixed internet subscribers by access type – 2012
Table 59 – Dial-up internet subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 60 – Internet (dial-up) ARPU – 2005; 2007 - 2009
Table 61 – International internet bandwidth – 2000 - 2012
Table 62 – Fixed broadband subscribers – 2001 - 2013
Table 63 – Fixed broadband subscribers - market share by access type – 2012
Table 64 – Fixed broadband subscribers and households – 2012
Table 65 – Mobile broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2013
Table 66 – India - Broadband and internet subscriber targets – 2005; 2007; 2010
Table 67 – DSL subscribers – 2001 - 2012
Table 68 – Cable modem subscribers – 2001 - 2012
Table 69 – Wireless broadband subscribers – 2007 - 2012
Table 70 - Broadcasting market overview - 2012
Table 71 – Cable and TV households – 1995 - 2012
Table 72 – Total TV industry revenue – 2000 - 2011
Table 73 – Pay TV subscribers by technology – 2003- 2012
Table 74 – Number of channels carried by cable operators – 2010 - 2012
Table 75 – DTH subscribers – 2008 - 2012
Table 76 – Overview of India's mobile market – 2011 - 2013
Table 77 – Mobile subscribers, annual change and penetration – 2006 - 2013
Table 78 – Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) – 2002 - 2013
Table 79 – GSM mobile subscribers and annual change – 1997 - 2013
Table 80 – Mobile penetration urban and rural – 2007; 2009 - 2012
Table 81 – Mobile services revenue – 1996 - 2012
Table 82 – Mobile ARPU by technology, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2012
Table 83 – Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) – 2005 - 2012
Table 84 –GSM mobile subscribers by region/circle – 2012 - 2013
Table 85 – GSM ARPU – 2003 - 2012
Table 86 – GSM ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2012
Table 87 – GSM mobile operators, subscribers and market share – June 2013
Table 88 – GSM ARPU by operator grouping, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2012
Table 89 – CDMA mobile operators, subscribers and market share – 2012
Table 90 – CDMA ARPU – 2003 - 2012
Table 91 – CDMA ARPU by region/circle, prepaid/postpaid/blended – 2012
Table 92 – 3G auction (2010): Number of licences and total fees paid by operators
Table 93 – Prepaid mobile subscribers: share of total market – 2003 - 2012
Table 94 – SMS traffic by technology and subscriber – 2011 - 2012
Table 95 – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 96 – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 97 – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020

List of Charts

Chart 1 - Mobile operators and subscribers - 2012
Chart 2 - Mobile operators' market share by subscribers – 2012
Chart 3 – Market share of fixed-line basic services by operator – April 2013
Chart 4 - ISP market - leading operators, subscribers and market share - March 2012
Chart 5 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity – 2005 - 2013
Chart 6 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity (historical) – 1995 - 2005
Chart 7 - PCOs in operation and market share by operator - 2012
Chart 8 – Fixed internet subscribers 2000 - 2013
Chart 9 - Fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - 2005-2013
Chart 10 - Fixed broadband market share by access type - March 2012
Chart 11 - DSL subscribers - 2005-2012
Chart 12 - Cable modem subscribers - 2001-2012
Chart 13 – Cable and TV households and TV industry revenue: 2000 - 2011
Chart 14 - Pay TV subscribers by technology 2003-2012
Chart 15 - Mobile subscribers and penetration – 2006 - 2013
Chart 16 - Mobile subscribers (GSM and CDMA) - 2002-2013
Chart 17 - GSM mobile subscribers and annual change - 1997-2013
Chart 18 - Mobile penetration urban and rural - 2007; 2009-2012
Chart 19 - Mobile ARPU (GSM and CDMA) - 2005-2012
Chart 20 – GSM mobile operator market share – September 2013
Chart 21 – CDMA mobile operator market share – 2012

List of Exhibits

Exhibit 1 – Overview of FDI policy for India's telecom sector
Exhibit 2– Fixed-line basic services by operator – April 2013
Exhibit 3 – Major shareholders in Bharti Airtel – April 2012
Exhibit 4 – Bharti Airtel – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 5 – Idea Cellular – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 6 – Reliance Communications linked with Reliance Industries Ltd – 2013
Exhibit 7 – Reliance Communications – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 8 – Tata Teleservices – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 9 – Vodafone Essar – mobile operations - key statistics
Exhibit 10 – International submarine cable systems with landing points in India - 2012
Exhibit 11 – ISRO satellite network – September 2012
Exhibit 12 – Schedule for migration to Digital Addressable Cable TV System (DAS) – 2012 - 2014
Exhibit 13 – Broadcasting Standard and major broadcasters
Exhibit 14 – Information on FTA turned Pay and New Pay Channels
Exhibit 15 – Overview of major channels available to consumers in India
Exhibit 16 – Operators issued DTH licences – March 2012
Exhibit 17 – Operators / licences affected by 2G licensing process cancellation – February 2012
Exhibit 18 – CDMA 3G commercial deployment in India