Herman Cain Still on Top Among Republicans for the GOP Primary Win but Newt Gingrich Surges
Mitt Romney in second among Republicans, but is tied with President Obama in the general election
NEW YORK, Nov. 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The candidates may be spending Thanksgiving in Iowa or New Hampshire instead of at home this year as the primary calendar quickly comes to an end with just six weeks until the first votes are cast. As noted last month, each month the story line seems to take a new shift, and yet again this month we have another new story with the rise of Newt Gingrich.
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Among Republicans, one in five (19%) would vote for Godfather Pizza CEO Herman Cain in the GOP primary while 16% would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and 15% would vote for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Other candidates are all under 10% including Rick Perry (9%), Ron Paul (5%), Michele Bachman (2%), Jon Huntsman (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Gary Johnson at less than 1%. Three in ten Republicans (30%), however, are still not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,499 adults surveyed online between November 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
Among Independents, 15% would vote for Mitt Romney, 13% for Herman Cain and 11% for Ron Paul with 7% voting for Newt Gingrich. Two in five Independents (40%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the primary. Among Conservatives, one in five (19%) say they would vote for Herman Cain, 15% would vote for Newt Gingrich and 12% for Mitt Romney. Just under one-quarter of Tea Party supporters (23%) would vote for Herman Cain in the Republican primary, 14% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich while 27% are not at all sure.
Showing there is some concern among party faithful about the candidates, when asked which candidate they would never vote for, each candidate has almost one in five Republicans and Conservatives saying they would never vote for them. Among the front-runners, one in five Republicans (19%) and one-quarter of Conservatives (24%) would never vote for Mitt Romney. One-quarter of both Republicans (25%) and Conservatives (26%) would never vote for Herman Cain while 23% of both Conservatives and Republicans would never vote for Newt Gingrich.
Head to head match-ups
Looking at some specific candidates versus President Obama, Mitt Romney is the closest competitor. If the presidential election were held today, 41% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 41% would vote for Mitt Romney and 18% are not at all sure. This is very close to last month when 41% said they would vote for the President and 40% would vote for Mitt Romney. Looking at the probable swing states for 2012, 44% of people from those states would vote for Mitt Romney and 39% would vote for President Obama while 17% are not at all sure.
If Ron Paul is the eventual Republican nominee, 40% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 38% would vote for Ron Raul with one in five (21%) not at all sure. Last month, 41% said they would vote for the President and 36% for Ron Paul. Among the swing states for next year 44% would vote for Ron Paul and 36% would vote for President Obama, with 20% not at all sure.
Between Rick Perry and President Obama, 44% of U.S. adults would vote for the President while 38% would vote for the Texas Governor and one in five Americans (19%) say they are not at all sure. In October, 45% said they would vote for President Obama and 36% for Rick Perry. In the 2012 swing states, more than two in five (43%) would vote for President Obama and 39% would vote for Rick Perry.
Herman Cain may still be on top among the Republican nominees, but in a head to head match-up he is the farthest behind the President as 44% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 34% would vote for Herman Cain with 22% saying they are not at all sure. Among the 2012 swing states, 43% would vote for the President while 37% would vote for Herman Cain.
So What?
Ah, Thanksgiving; the time of year which traditionally brings families together around the table to celebrate and give thanks. But this year it also means the beginning of the final few weeks of campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire before the first votes are cast. As the candidates compete with holiday planning to get voters' attention, one thing to stress is how they will do in a general election. Here Mitt Romney clearly has the best story, with Ron Paul a close second. While Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich may be doing well in the primary, the real question for Republicans is can they beat President Obama? Right now the answer appears to be no.
| TABLE 1
Base: All adults |
||||||||
|
|
Total Nov 2011 |
Political Party |
Political Philosophy |
Tea Party Support |
||||
| Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Mitt Romney |
14 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
12 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
| Herman Cain |
11 |
19 |
5 |
13 |
19 |
9 |
3 |
23 |
| Ron Paul |
8 |
5 |
7 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
8 |
| Newt Gingrich |
7 |
15 |
2 |
7 |
15 |
5 |
1 |
14 |
| Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
6 |
2 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
6 |
12 |
2 |
| Rick Perry |
4 |
9 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
3 |
7 |
| Michele Bachmann |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
| Gary Johnson |
1 |
* |
1 |
1 |
1 |
* |
2 |
* |
| Rick Santorum |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
1 |
* |
* |
* |
| Not at all sure |
47 |
30 |
58 |
40 |
35 |
53 |
51 |
27 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5% |
||||||||
| TABLE 2
Base: All adults |
||||||||
|
|
Total Nov 2011 |
Political Party |
Political Philosophy |
Tea Party Support |
||||
| Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Michele Bachmann |
48 |
32 |
65 |
49 |
28 |
53 |
70 |
29 |
| Herman Cain |
42 |
25 |
61 |
39 |
26 |
43 |
66 |
22 |
| Newt Gingrich |
42 |
23 |
63 |
39 |
23 |
44 |
69 |
22 |
| Rick Perry |
38 |
18 |
57 |
36 |
21 |
39 |
62 |
19 |
| Ron Paul |
32 |
27 |
40 |
31 |
30 |
29 |
44 |
26 |
| Rick Santorum |
30 |
16 |
43 |
31 |
19 |
30 |
50 |
21 |
| Mitt Romney |
28 |
19 |
38 |
26 |
24 |
27 |
39 |
22 |
| Gary Johnson |
27 |
23 |
34 |
24 |
23 |
25 |
37 |
22 |
| Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
26 |
23 |
31 |
23 |
24 |
24 |
32 |
22 |
| I would vote for all of these candidates |
18 |
24 |
8 |
17 |
24 |
18 |
10 |
24 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 10047% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5% |
||||||||
| TABLE 3A
Base: All adults |
||||||||
|
|
Total Oct |
Total Nov |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||
| Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Mitt Romney |
40 |
41 |
82 |
11 |
45 |
71 |
34 |
10 |
| Barack Obama |
41 |
41 |
6 |
81 |
33 |
11 |
45 |
80 |
| Not at all sure |
18 |
18 |
13 |
9 |
22 |
18 |
22 |
10 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||||
| TABLE 3B
Base: All adults |
|||||
|
|
Total |
Partisan |
Swing States |
||
| Mod./ Ind. |
Cons./ Tea Party |
2012 |
5% in 2008 |
||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Mitt Romney |
41 |
36 |
92 |
44 |
43 |
| Barack Obama |
41 |
37 |
- |
39 |
41 |
| Not at all sure |
18 |
27 |
8 |
17 |
16 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; - indicates no response |
|||||
| TABLE 4A
Base: All adults |
||||||||
|
|
Total Oct |
Total Nov |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||
| Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Barack Obama |
45 |
44 |
6 |
83 |
40 |
11 |
51 |
80 |
| Rick Perry |
36 |
38 |
80 |
7 |
40 |
70 |
28 |
8 |
| Not at all sure |
19 |
19 |
14 |
10 |
21 |
18 |
22 |
12 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||||
| TABLE 4B
Base: All adults |
|||||
|
|
Total |
Partisan |
Swing States |
||
| Mod./ Ind. |
Cons./ Tea Party |
2012 |
5% in 2008 |
||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Barack Obama |
44 |
49 |
- |
43 |
45 |
| Rick Perry |
38 |
30 |
93 |
39 |
38 |
| Not at all sure |
19 |
22 |
7 |
18 |
18 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; – indicates no response |
|||||
| TABLE 5A
Base: All adults |
||||||||
|
|
Total Oct |
Total Nov |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||
| Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Barack Obama |
41 |
40 |
6 |
80 |
34 |
10 |
45 |
78 |
| Ron Paul |
36 |
38 |
73 |
9 |
44 |
67 |
31 |
11 |
| Not at all sure |
23 |
21 |
21 |
10 |
22 |
23 |
25 |
11 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||||
| TABLE 5B
Base: All adults |
|||||
|
|
Total |
Partisan |
Swing States |
||
| Mod./ Ind. |
Cons./ Tea Party |
2012 |
5% in 2008 |
||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Barack Obama |
40 |
40 |
- |
36 |
38 |
| Ron Paul |
38 |
37 |
84 |
44 |
43 |
| Not at all sure |
21 |
24 |
16 |
20 |
19 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; - indicates no response |
|||||
| TABLE 6A
Base: All adults |
||||||||
|
|
Total Oct |
Total Nov |
Party ID |
Philosophy |
||||
| Rep. |
Dem. |
Ind. |
Cons. |
Mod. |
Lib. |
|||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Barack Obama |
43 |
44 |
7 |
82 |
40 |
12 |
49 |
83 |
| Herman Cain |
35 |
34 |
71 |
7 |
37 |
66 |
26 |
4 |
| Not at all sure |
22 |
22 |
22 |
11 |
23 |
22 |
25 |
13 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding |
||||||||
| TABLE 6B
Base: All adults |
|||||
|
|
Total |
Partisan |
Swing States |
||
| Mod./ Ind. |
Cons./ Tea Party |
2012 |
5% in 2008 |
||
| % |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| Barack Obama |
44 |
47 |
- |
43 |
45 |
| Herman Cain |
34 |
30 |
93 |
37 |
36 |
| Not at all sure |
22 |
24 |
7 |
19 |
20 |
| Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia; 5% states in 2008 are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio; - indicates no response |
|||||
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between November 7 and 14, 2011 among 2,499 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
J40806
Q1230, 1235, 1240, 1245, 1246, 1247, 1248
The Harris Poll® #122, November 21, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American and European offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.
Press Contact:
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive
212-539-9600
[email protected]
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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