Green Energy in Emerging Economies: Renewable Investment, Capacity Growth, and Future Outlook

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Green Energy in Emerging Economies: Renewable investment, capacity growth, and future outlook

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Rapid growth in economy and energy consumption in non-OECD countries will need an expansion in the power generation market. Governments will increasingly be looking to develop renewable energies to avoid power shortages that would stunt development and therefore mitigate government objectives of raising living standards.

Global economic and energy demand growth will be concentrated in developing economies, so there is much potential for the role of renewable energies in emerging markets to expand over the next two decades. Although conventional forms of energy will still dominate the energy mix, the expansion of power-generating capacity in emerging markets will at least partly be supplied by growth in wind, solar, bio and hydropower.

The BRIC – Brazil, Russia, India and China - countries and other emerging markets are facing the twin challenges of promoting economic growth while mitigating the environmental impact of their growth strategies.

While there is criticism that countries such as India and China have balked from making more firm commitments to cutting their GHG emissions, both these countries nevertheless have prioritized renewable energy development as part of their strategy to reduce the carbon intensity of their respective economies per unit of GDP.

Therefore, developing economies led by the BRIC countries are playing an increasingly crucial role, not just in the global economic order, but also in the climate change debate and in the dynamics of global energy supply and demand.

Key findings

China will be one of the major markets for wind power over the next two decades. China's National Energy Administration stated that the country aims to more than double its wind power capacity to 30GW by 2020. China will reportedly invest at least $150bn to achieve the 30GW target by 2010.

By 2030, non-OECD economies will account for 59% of global energy consumption, a marked increase from 49.8% in 2006. Also by 2030, non-OECD economies will be emitting 25.8bn mt of carbon dioxide, or 64% of total emissions.

Brazil has huge potential for renewable energy through the burning of bagasse – a waste product from sugarcane production - to generate onsite heat and power. In

2009, it is estimated that 8,892MW of power will be produced by sugar cane with 3,600MW available to the market.

Incentive schemes will be crucial for the development of renewable energy sector over the next two decades. The report includes a detailed look at the many policies being promoted by the emerging economies, with a special emphasis on India.

Renewable energy policies differ greatly among the smaller emerging economies, ranging from the promotion of solar power in the Czech Republic to the concentration on geothermal power by the government of Indonesia.

Use this report to...

• Achieve a quick and comprehensive understanding of the renewable energy sector in the major emerging economies.
• Realize up-to-date competitive intelligence through an extensive review of the different forms of renewable energy and the different rates of development depending on the country.
• Assess the policy goals of the emerging economies regarding renewable energy and how these are driving capacity expansion.
• Identify which forms of renewable energy and which markets have the greatest growth potential for renewable energy.
• Identify the main drivers and resistors to growth for all the main renewable energy sources in each of the major emerging economies.

Explore issues including...

Environmental requirements: - By 2006, non-OECD economies had exceeded the OECD in energy related carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, BRIC countries, especially China and India, will play a major role in emissions growth over the next two decades by virtue of the fact that in each case economic growth and energy demand expansion will be robust. On the back of this, emerging economies are coming under increasing international pressure to cut emissions and invest in renewable sources.

Legislative issues: - As China has become a leading emitter of GHGs, its government has also decided to facilitate the growth of cleaner renewable energy sources to help fuel the country's economic expansion. This has resulted in the country pledging to install almost 350GW of renewable capacity by 2030. Faced by similar problems, many of the leading emerging economies are also adopting comprehensive national policies to promote renewable energy.

Government support for renewable energy: - The cost of renewable energy remains above that for fossil-fuelled generation technologies. Therefore the sector has required substantial government support in the emerging economies in order to stimulate development. This includes the implementation of generous fixed tariffs for electricity generated and other support schemes such as tax incentives.

Future growth: - Rapid economic and energy consumption growth in non-OECD countries will need to be fed by expanded power generation. Meanwhile, a shift in an overall policy towards environmental issues is occurring at the same time. Together these two issues will combine to drive substantial renewable energy investment in the developing world up to 2030.

Discover...

• What are the drivers shaping and influencing the renewable energy sector in the emerging economies?
• Which countries have the greatest potential for renewable energy?
• What types of renewable energy have the greatest potential for growth in the emerging economies?
• How is economic growth and increasing power consumption shaping renewable energy policies at a national level?
• How are governments reacting to international pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and what has been the impact of events such as the Copenhagen Conference?
• Who are the main companies benefiting from the surge in investment in renewable energy in the emerging world?

Companies mentioned

Table of Contents

Green Energy in Emerging Economies

Executive summary 12

Market outlook 12

China 13

India 14

Brazil 15

Russia 16

Other countries 17

Future outlook 18

Chapter 1 Market outlook 22

Overview of the electricity sector 22

Overview of renewable energy 26

Wind power 29

Solar power 30

Biopower 31

Hydropower 32

Geothermal 33

Chapter 2 China 36

Summary 36

Introduction 37

China's current energy picture 37

China's energy policy framework 39

Wind power 42

Key players 44

Case study – China High Speed Transmission (CHST) 45

Drivers of wind power 46

Resistors of wind power 47

Solar power 47

Key players 49

Drivers of solar power 50

Resistors of solar power 51

Biopower 51

Key players 53

Drivers of biopower 54

Resistors of biopower 54

Hydropower 54

Small hydropower 55

Large hydropower 55

Key players 56

Drivers of hydropower 56

Resistors of hydropower 57

Geothermal 57

Conclusions 57

Chapter 3 India 60

Overview 61

India's energy demand growth and the climate change challenge 61

India's energy policies 63

India's energy supply mix 64

Wind power 66

Key players 68

Case study – new incentives 69

Drivers of wind power 70

Resistors of wind power 71

Solar power 71

Key players 74

Drivers of solar power 75

Resistors of solar power 75

Biopower 76

Key players 77

Drivers to biopower 78

Resistors to biopower 78

Geothermal 78

Hydropower 79

Small hydropower 81

Key players 81

Drivers of small hydropower 81

Resistors of small hydropower 82

Large hydropower 82

Key players 84

Drivers of hydropower 85

Resistors of hydropower 85

Conclusions 86

Chapter 4 Brazil 88

Overview 89

Wind power 93

Key players 96

Drivers of wind power 97

Resistors of wind power 97

Solar power 97

Drivers of solar power 98

Resistors of solar power 99

Biopower 99

Case study – sugar cane bagasse 100

Key players 101

Drivers of biopower 102

Resistors of biopower 102

Hydropower 103

Small hydropower 103

Key players 104

Drivers of hydropower 104

Resistors of hydropower 105

Geothermal 105

Conclusions 105

Chapter 5 Russia 108

Overview 108

Russia, climate change and energy policy 110

Russia's energy mix and potential for renewables 111

Wind power 113

Key players 114

Drivers of wind power 115

Resistors of wind power 115

Solar power 116

Case study – solar industry growth in 2009 116

Drivers of solar power 118

Resistors of solar power 118

Biopower 118

Drivers of biopower 119

Resistors of biopower 119

Hydropower 119

Key players 121

Drivers of hydropower 122

Resistors of hydropower 122

Geothermal 122

Conclusions 123

Chapter 6 Other countries 126

Turkey 127

Introduction 127

Wind power 131

Solar power 132

Biopower 132

Hydropower 132

Geothermal 133

Indonesia 133

Wind power 136

Solar power 136

Biopower 137

Hydropower 137

Geothermal 138

Poland 139

Wind power 140

Solar power 141

Biopower 141

Hydropower 142

Geothermal 142

Czech Republic 142

Wind power 144

Solar power 144

Case study – Czech solar industry growth 144

Biopower 146

Hydropower 146

Geothermal power 147

Hungary 147

Wind power 148

Solar power 149

Biopower 149

Hydropower 149

Geothermal 150

South Africa 150

Chapter 7 Future outlook 154

Outlook for energy consumption and power generation 155

CO2 emissions 159

Wind power 160

Solar power 162

Biopower 163

Hydropower 164

Geothermal 166

Conclusions 166

Glossary 168

Index 171

List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Global growth in net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2000–2008 24

Figure 1.2: Total renewable power installed capacity (m kW), 2000 – 2007 28

Figure 2.3: China, electricity production market share (%), 2006 38

Figure 2.4: Wind power installation capacity (MW), 2008 42

Figure 2.5: Leading country producers of PV cells (GW), 2008 49

Figure 2.6: Biomass generation capacity (MW), 2005–2008 52

Figure 2.7: Installed capacity of biomass power technologies (MW), 2008 53

Figure 3.8: Estimated growth in Indian renewable energy capacity of power generation (MW), 2009-2012 65

Figure 3.9: India, wind power capacity by state (MW), 2008 68

Figure 3.10: Indian solar resources 72

Figure 3.11: India solar power projections (2012–2030), GW 74

Figure 3.12: India's potential hydropower potential by region (MW), 2007 80

Figure 3.13: India hydropower capacity additions (MW), 2009-2012 84

Figure 4.14: Brazil, net electricity consumption growth (bn kWh), 2000–2007 90

Figure 4.15: Brazil, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 93

Figure 4.16: Brazil wind power capacity (MW), 2002–2008 94

Figure 5.17: Russia, primary energy consumption (Mtoe), 2008 109

Figure 5.18: Total power generation capacity in Russia (MW), 2007 112

Figure 5.19: Russia, wind power capacity projected expansion (MW), 2010–2020 114

Figure 6.20: Turkey, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 128

Figure 6.21: Wind energy feed-in prices (euro per MWh), 2008 130

Figure 6.22: Indonesia, installed power generation capacity (GW), 2008 134

Figure 6.23: Indonesia, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 135

Figure 6.24: Poland, electricity production from wind power (GWh), 2004 –2008 141

Figure 6.25: Czech Republic, installed capacity (GWh), 2008 143

Figure 6.26: Czech Republic, installed solar capacity (MW), Jan 2008 – Nov 2009 146

Figure 6.27: Hungary, installed capacity (MW), 2008 148

Figure 7.28: Total primary energy consumption BRIC region (QBtu), 1990 – 2030 159

Figure 7.29: Wind power capacity projections, China and India (MW), 2010–2030 161

List of Tables

Table 1.1: Global growth in net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2000–2008 23

Table 1.2: Total renewable power installed capacity (m kW), 2000 – 2007 28

Table 1.3: Wind power capacity, top five countries (MW), 2008 29

Table 1.4: Global solar power capacity (GW), 2008 30

Table 2.5: China, electricity production market share (%), 2006 38

Table 2.6: Wind power installation capacity (MW), 2008 42

Table 2.7: Leading country producers of PV cells (GW), 2008 48

Table 2.8: Biomass generation capacity (MW), 2005-2008 52

Table 2.9: Installed capacity of biomass power technologies (MW), 2008 53

Table 3.10: Estimated growth in Indian renewable energy capacity (MW), 2009-2012 65

Table 3.11: India, wind power capacity by state, 2008 67

Table 3.12: India solar power projections (GW), 2012-2030 73

Table 3.13: Power generation capacity of biopower in India (MW), October 2009 76

Table 3.14: India's hydropower potential by region (MW), 2007 80

Table 3.15: India hydropower capacity additions (MW), 2009-2012 83

Table 4.16: Brazil, net electricity consumption (bn kWh), 2000-2007 89

Table 4.17: Projections of installed capacity for renewable energy sources in Brazil (MW), 2015– 2030 92

Table 4.18: Brazil, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 93

Table 4.19: Brazil, wind power capacity (MW), 2002-2008 94

Table 4.20: Brazil biopower capacity (MW), 2009–2019 101

Table 5.21: Russia, primary energy consumption (Mtoe), 2008 109

Table 5.22: Total power generation capacity in Russia (MW), 2007 111

Table 5.23: Russia, wind power capacity projected expansion (MW), 2010-2020 113

Table 6.24: Turkey, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 127

Table 6.25: Wind energy feed-in prices (euro per MWh), 2008 130

Table 6.26: Indonesia, installed power generation capacity (GW), 2008 134

Table 6.27: Indonesia, net electricity generation (bn kWh), 2008 135

Table 6.28: Poland, electricity production from wind power (GWh), 2004-2008 140

Table 6.29: Czech Republic, installed capacity (GW), 2007 143

Table 6.30: Czech Republic, installed solar capacity (MW), Jan 2008– Nov 2009 145

Table 6.31: Hungary, installed capacity (GW), 2008 147

Table 6.32: South Africa: renewable energy feed-in tariffs (ZAR/kWh), March 2009 151

Table 7.33: World energy consumption (QBtu), 156

Table 7.34: Global projections of net electricity generation by energy source (trn kWh), 2010– 2030 157

Table 7.35: Total primary energy consumption BRIC region (QBtu), 1990 -2030 158

Table 7.36: Global energy related CO2 emissions forecasts (bn metric tonnes) 160

Table 7.37: Wind power capacity projections, China and India (MW), 2010-2030 161

Table 7.38: Global projections of renewable electricity generation by source (bn kWh), 2010–2030 165

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