E7: The Outlook for Pharmaceuticals to 2012

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Nov 14, 2011, 05:24 ET

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The emerging E7 countries represent the best prospect for growth. The potential of these countries is huge: they have a combined population of over three billion people, and their economies are performing well. One consequence of this increasing wealth is a growing financial capacity to treat previously unmet health needs. Another is increasing incidence of 'affluence' diseases such as diabetes, as people live longer and have more sedentary lifestyles.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE REGION...

BRAZIL

The Brazilian pharmaceutical market is the third largest in the Americas region, behind the USA and Canada; it ranks first in the Latin American region. Pharmaceutical demand will continue to rise, fuelled by increasing disposable income, therefore the market outlook is positive for the 2011-2016 period. Competition among the five leading pharmacy chains is fierce, and the sector has been consolidated by a recent wave of mergers. In September 2011, Drogaria Sao Paulo, the leader in the state of Sao Paulo, and Drogarias Pacheco, the leader in Rio de Janeiro, announced a merger, creating what will be the largest pharmacy chain in Brazil, DPSP. This merger took place after the merger between Drogasil and Droga Raia, announced in August 2011, creating the second largest pharmacy chain, Raia Drogasil.

CHINA

The Ministry of Health (MoH) has made lowering drug prices a top priority for health authorities in 2011. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) implemented two rounds of drug price reductions in 2011, one in March and the other in September. Most of the drugs reduced were manufactured by multinationals, which had previously not been subject to pricing controls. In July 2011, the MoH revealed that it may introduce mandatory licensing policy to secure cheaper drugs for HIV/AIDS patients, as part of the country's universal health coverage programme. In January 2011, the MoH announced that the Essential Drugs List would be further expanded to cover nearly all government-sponsored grass-roots health institutions.

INDIA

The Indian pharmaceutical market is highly competitive and remains dominated by low priced, domestically-produced generics. Despite having the second largest population in the world and a growing middle class with high healthcare expectations, India accounts for less than 2% of the world pharmaceutical market in value terms. In one of the world's better performing economies, spending on pharmaceuticals accounts for less than 1% of GDP and average per capita spending remains one of the lowest levels in the region. India's biopharmaceutical sector is currently experiencing double-digit growth and this is expected to continue, driven by the vaccines market. Growth drivers include education and increased awareness of disease prevention, higher disposable income and government participation in immunisation programmes. Continued growth is also expected in the diagnostic and therapeutic segments, including cancer and diabetes.

INDONESIA

Due to the sheer size of the population, Indonesia cannot simply be dismissed. The Indonesian pharmaceutical market is projected to grow at a high single-digit CAGR in US dollar terms during the forecast period, and it will be the sixth largest pharmaceutical market in the Asia Pacific region by 2016. There are around 240 domestic pharmaceutical manufacturers in Indonesia, with the vast majority located in Java. However, despite the country possessing huge manufacturing capabilities, the complete lack of R&D in domestic companies could affect the market, especially if IPR regulations were tightened. Although multinationals will be unhappy at the legislation requiring all drugs in the Indonesian market to have been manufactured in Indonesia, it could potentially reduce costs in the long term for both the manufacturer and the consumer.

MEXICO

Generic sales in Mexico are still negligible in the private pharmacy sector. However, the National Association of Interchangeable Generic Medicines (AMEGI) believes that consumption of generic medicines in the private pharmacy sector will increase considerably in the forecast period. A number of patents for bestselling drugs will expire in the coming years, and this will accelerate generic market growth. Generic sales are high, when considering sales in the public sector. The public sector is accountable for about 80.0% of generic sales by value, whilst the private pharmacy sector represents the remaining 20.0%; generic sales represented 3.5% of pharmacy sales. In terms of competition, a number of foreign producers, i.e. Sanofi and Valeant, have acquired a couple of local producers, whilst others have formed partnerships with local producers.

RUSSIA

The presence of foreign manufacturers is increasing in Russia. A number of agreements have been made in 2011 between domestic and foreign companies that will benefit the Russian pharmaceutical market. These include a joint-venture between India's Aurobindo Pharma and Russia's OJSC Diod; a licensing agreement between Norgine and Nycomed that gives the latter exclusive rights to commercialise MoviPrep in Russia; investment by Rusnano, Russia's government investment company, in Cleveland BioLabs' new subsidiary, Panacela Labs, which will develop a portfolio of new preclinical drug candidates in Russia; Pfizer and ChemRar High Technology Centre signing a memorandum of understanding to explore a collaboration focused on the research, development and commercialisation of innovative drugs in Russia; and the launching of Pro Bono Bio as a new international pharmaceutical company as a result of a three-year Anglo/Russian project.

TURKEY

There have been a number of recent acquisitions by foreign pharmaceutical companies. In September 2011, Italy's Recordati successfully concluded its acquisition of Dr F Frik Ilac, headquartered in Istanbul. This was Recordati's second acquisition in Turkey, following the acquisition of Yeni Ilac in 2008. In September 2011, USA's Eli Lilly began talks to invest in and form a partnership with Mustafa Nevzat (MN) Pharmaceuticals; it is also possible MN could sell a stake to a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund. In May 2011, Poland's Polpharma acquired a majority of shares in Cenovapharma. In April 2011, Nycomed entered into several agreements with various local pharmaceutical companies to replace Biomeks Ilac as the marketing authorisation holder and distributor for the majority of the company's product portfolio in Turkey. Local companies are strengthening their position in the local market by expanding manufacturing capabilities.

THESE REPORTS ANALYSE THE ISSUES

The E7: The Outlook for Pharmaceuticals is a unique collection of management reports from Espicom Business Intelligence. Each report provides individual and highly-detailed analysis of each market, looking at the key regulatory, political, economic and corporate developments in the wider context of market structure, service and access. The reports are available individually, or as a discounted collection, and prices include 4 completely updated reports sent quarterly, together with a comprehensive statistical appendix. There are over 60 markets covered in the worldwide series.

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: E7: The Outlook for Pharmaceuticals to 2012

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