Deloitte Consumer Spending Index Stabilizes in February

Initial unemployment claims, improving real wages help offset increased tax burden

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Mar 20, 2013, 08:00 ET

NEW YORK, March 20, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index (Index) remained steady in February primarily as a decline in initial unemployment claims and a rise in real average hourly earnings offset negative forces. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spendingⁱ.

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"The economic fundamentals that influence consumer spending are aligning," said Patricia Buckley, director, economic policy and analysis, Deloitte LLP, and author of the monthly Index. "Financial institutions and the markets are stronger, and consumer confidence and real spending appear to be weathering the 2013 payroll tax increases fairly well. Absent the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the sequester, an economic turnaround would likely be imminent."

The Index, which comprises four components — tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices — rose slightly this month to 4.0 from a reading of 3.9 the previous month.

"The Index along with other positive retail news demonstrates that retailers have been able to focus consumers on spring – Easter entertaining, warm-weather apparel and home improvement projects," said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail & distribution sector leader. "Keeping that momentum will take more than just traditional seasonal signage and promotions. Highlighting new and unique merchandise – both in store and on web sites while fully integrating with mobile apps – can continue to drive traffic and encourage full-price purchases, inspiring consumers to spend their tax refunds."

Highlights of the Index include:

Tax Burden: The tax burden rose nearly 2 percent on a year-over-year basis in January to 11.29 percent.

Initial Unemployment Claims: Claims continued downward to 352,750, falling more than 6 percent from a year ago.

Real Wages: Hourly real wages modestly increased over the past three months to $8.78.

Real New Home Prices: Real new home prices ticked down slightly, about 0.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, to $97,925.

For a historical analysis of Deloitte's Consumer Spending Index compared to real consumer spending, visit: www.deloitte.com/us/retail/consumer-spending-index/feb2013.

About Deloitte's Retail & Distribution Practice

Deloitte is a leading presence in the retail and distribution industry, providing audit, consulting, risk management, financial advisory and tax services to more than 75 percent of the Fortune 500 retailers. With more than 1,400 professionals, Deloitte's retail & distribution practice provides insights, services and solutions assisting retailers across all major subsectors including apparel, grocery, food and drug, wholesale and distribution and online. For more information about Deloitte's retail & distribution sector, please visit www.deloitte.com/us/retail-distribution.

As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.

ⁱThe Deloitte Consumer Spending Index is a proprietary methodology that analyzes economic factors to gauge consumer cash flow as an indicator of future spending. Deloitte's analysis includes data from the U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Department of Labor.

SOURCE Deloitte