Deloitte Consumer Spending Index Drops in December

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Jan 17, 2013, 08:00 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 17, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index (Index) slid again in December, following November's decrease after a year of steady gains. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spendingⁱ.

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"The decrease in the Index this month is primarily due to Hurricane Sandy—which induced jobless claims, though that effect appears to have passed," said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail & distribution sector leader. "On the plus side, consumers benefited from falling gasoline prices through the last quarter, which helped temper declining real wages. However, the fiscal cliff debate appears to have impacted consumer confidence late in the year, compounding the adjustment to new tax rates -- all of these factors may lead to more conservative spending in the months ahead."

The Index, which comprises four components — tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices — fell this month to 3.81 from a reading of 3.96 the previous month.

"Faced with a more selective consumer, retailers are likely to experiment with creative marketing, in other words, trying new approaches with social media and shifting spend to their mobile strategy, to differentiate themselves," Paul added. "Whether it's a new shopping app or sales strategy, promotions should both reflect their individual brand identify while offering distinctive value to the shopper. We are already seeing many 'price matching' experiments launched during the holidays being extended into the new year – an effort to keep customers coming back."

Highlights of the Index include:

Tax Burden: The tax burden was at 11.03 percent in the most recent month. A falling tax burden can be a sign of weaker growth in taxable incomes.

Initial Unemployment Claims: Jobless claims moved much higher this month to 405,750 from 367,250 the previous month, primarily due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy.

Real Wages: Real wages continue to fall from a year ago and are down 0.3 percent, although the pace of decline has moderated as gasoline prices fell sharply in November.

Real Home Prices: The housing market continues to improve, pushing housing prices up nearly 13 percent higher compared to a year ago.

Following is a historical analysis of Deloitte's Consumer Spending Index compared to real consumer spending: www.deloitte.com/us/retail/consumer-spending-index/dec2012

About Deloitte's Retail & Distribution Practice

Deloitte is a leading presence in the retail and distribution industry, providing audit, consulting, risk management, financial advisory and tax services to 80 percent of the Fortune 500 retailers. With more than 1,400 professionals, Deloitte's retail & distribution practice provides insights, services and solutions assisting retailers across all major subsectors including apparel, grocery, food and drug, wholesale and distribution and online. For more information about Deloitte's retail & distribution sector, please visit www.deloitte.com/us/retail-distribution.

As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.

ⁱ The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index is a proprietary methodology that analyzes economic factors to gauge consumer cash flow as an indicator of future spending. Deloitte's analysis includes data from the U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Department of Labor.

SOURCE Deloitte