Confidence in Congress and Supreme Court Drops to Lowest Level in Many Years

NEW YORK, May 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Harris Poll has been measuring the confidence of the American public in the leaders of major institutions since 1966. In most years only a few institutions experience a significant change and this year is no exception.  However, this year almost all the changes are negative; fewer people have a great deal of confidence in most institutions than did so a year ago.  And the leaders of some institutions have dropped to new depths.  Only 6% of all adults now have a great deal of confidence in the leaders of Congress, the lowest level in the 45 years since we first asked this question.  In this new poll, 24% of adults have a great deal of confidence in the Supreme Court; this is only the fourth time in 45 years that it has fallen below 25%.

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Based on all the responses to this poll we calculate the Harris Confidence Index. This year, the Index has fallen to 48, from 53 last year and 54 in 2009.  This is the lowest since the Index stood at 44 in 2008, the last year of the Bush administration.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 1,987 adults surveyed by telephone and online between April 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.  This is the first time this survey has been conducted both by telephone and online.  Note that this survey was also conducted prior to the death of Osama bin Laden.

Some of the main findings of this Harris Poll are:

• At the top of the list, i.e. the largest numbers of people have a great deal of  confidence in them, are the leaders of the military (57%) and  small business (50%), far ahead of any of the other leaders on the list. These numbers have not changed significantly over the last two years;
• Also high on the list, but substantially lower, are the leaders of medicine (33%), and colleges and universities (30%);
• At the bottom of the list, leaders in whom the public has the least confidence are Congress (6% now, compared to 8% and 9% in 2010 and 2009), Wall Street (7% compared to 8% last year), law firms (11% compared to 13% last year), the press (11% compared to 13% last year), major companies (13% compared to 15% last year), organized labor (15% compared to 14% last year) and television news (16% compared to 17% last year).

While confidence in the leaders of most institutions slipped by one or two points since 2010, four institutions saw their numbers fall by five or more percentage points:

• Those with a great deal of confidence in the White House fell 8 points from 27% to 19%.  However, this survey was conducted just before the killing of Osama Bin Laden, an event that lifted the president's job rating in all polls published since then;
• Confidence in the Supreme Court fell 7 points from 31% to 24%;
• Confidence in colleges and universities fell 5 points from 35% to 30%; and,
• Confidence in the courts and the justice system fell 5 points from 24% to 19%.

So what?

While the slight downward trend in confidence is bad news for the leaders of many institutions, the 7 point drop in confidence in the Supreme Court and the extraordinarily low level of confidence in Congress are perhaps the two most striking findings.   They suggest a possible backlash against the Republican controlled House and some of the decisions of the Roberts court.

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone and online, within the United States between April 11 and 18, 2011 among a nationwide cross section of 1,987 adults (aged 18 and over). The interviews conducted by telephone (1010) included a nationwide cross section of adults with landlines in their households.  The interviews conducted online (977) included a nationwide sample who have agreed to take part in Harris Interactive surveys, and who indicated not having a landline (i.e., cell phone only), or using their cell phone for almost all of their calls (cell phone mostly), and thus were included to ensure representation of these groups that are lacking among a traditional RDD telephone sample.  Telephone data only were adjusted to ensure appropriate representation on number of telephone/voice lines and number of adults in the household, and online data only were are adjusted by propensity to be online to correct for attitudinal/behavioral differences between our panel and those who respond via phone.  Finally, for the combined telephone and online data, figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region, household income, and phone status (cell phone only, cell phone mostly, dual users, landline mostly, landline only) were adjusted as necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.  Population proportions for demographic variables were acquired from the 2010 Current Population Survey, while phone status proportions were acquired from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

The Harris Interactive Confidence in Leadership Index measures changes in the public's confidence in various institutions. It is derived in the following manner:

1. The index is based on the mean value of the items asked.
2. All items have equal weight.
3. The year 1966, the first year the items were asked, was set as a reference year for the index and assigned a score of 100.  
4. In order to yield a score of 100 in 1966, the mean value of the original 10 items was multiplied by a factor of 2.11. This same factor was then applied to the mean score in subsequent years, as long as the same items were asked.
5. Whenever a new item is added, the multiplication factor is changed so that the new item has no effect on that year's score. The new factor is derived by calculating the index with and without the new item(s), taking the ratio of the two scores, and multiplying this ratio by the old factor. (The current factor is 2.14).  
6. In years when an item included in a previous year is not asked, it is assumed for calculation purposes that no change has occurred in that item since the last time it was asked.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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The Harris Poll^® #58, May 18, 2011

By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman, The Harris Poll

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive