Clarus Poll: D.C. Mayor's Race

GRAY HOLDS SMALL LEAD OVER FENTY

Mayor has improved job rating, but still lags in personal favorability

WASHINGTON, Aug. 18 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- With four weeks to go before the September 14th Democratic Primary for Mayor of Washington, D.C., a new Clarus Poll finds that incumbent Adrian Fenty is running behind his main challenger, D.C. Council Chairman Vincent Gray, 39% to 36% among all voters. The survey also found that Gray's lead over Fenty expands to a 41% to 36% margin among voters who said they are "very likely" to vote.

The Clarus Poll revealed a deep racial divide in the citywide mayoral trial heat. Fenty has a 42-point lead among whites, while Gray has a 38-point lead among African Americans. Gray's favorability is much stronger among African Americans (70%) than whites (39%). And Fenty's favorability is much stronger among whites (63%) than African Americans (33%).

• "Gray now has the edge, but this race is far from over," said Ron Faucheux, President of Clarus Research Group, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C. "Election Day turnout will likely determine the winner."
• "Our latest poll finds that Fenty's job approval rating improved over the past nine months," said Faucheux. "In the November 2009 Clarus Poll, Fenty posted a 41% job approval rating among Democrats. It is now 49%."
• "Despite the jump in the mayor's job approval number, Fenty's personal favorability rating continues to be a drag on his re-election," cautioned Faucheux. "Fenty received a 46% personal favorability rating compared to Gray's 55%. Also, Fenty's unfavorable rating was worse than Gray's: 42% versus 20%.
• In the November 2009 Clarus Poll, Gray posted a 4-point lead over Fenty in a two-way match-up.

The latest Clarus Poll was based on a sample of 501 D.C. Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. The survey was conducted by live telephone interviewers August 15-16, 2010. Clarus conducted the survey for its own use. No client, candidate, or political committee sponsored or paid for this survey.

Ron Faucheux is Clarus president and chief analyst. He is also the author and editor of seven books on politics and teaches at the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science with a concentration in Voter Behavior Research.

Faucheux is available for interviews.

Other Clarus Poll findings:

• TWO-WAY TRIAL MAYORAL HEAT: Survey respondents were presented with a hypothetical Fenty vs. Gray head-to-head question after they were presented with the multi-candidate question. In the two-way match-up, Gray expanded his lead to 6 points, edging Fenty 44% to 38%.
• COUNCIL CHAIRMAN: Kwame Brown tops the D.C. Council Chairman's Democratic primary field. He leads Vincent Orange, his chief rival, 39% to 29%. The two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among white voters, but Brown holds a strong lead among African Americans.
• RHEE: Education Chancellor Michelle Rhee garnered a 50% job approval rating and a 35% disapproval rating. She does much better among white voters (79%) than blacks (28%). Rhee gets positive marks from 80% of white women, her strongest demographic, and 25% from black women, her weakest demographic.
• LANIER: D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier received a job approval rating of 80% – by far the highest of anyone tested. Her disapproval rating was only 7%. "Lanier remains the undisputed champ of D.C. government," said Faucheux. In the poll, Attorney General Peter Nickles received a 27% approval rating and an 18% disapproval rating.
• The D.C. City Council posted an approval rating of 62% and a disapproval rating of 22%. "Compared to other legislative bodies across the nation – local, state or federal – the D.C. Council does remarkably well," added Faucheux.

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SOURCE Clarus Research Group