China New Energy Vehicle Report

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Jan 24, 2017, 15:46 ET

NEW YORK, Jan. 24, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- The "war on pollution" which was proclaimed by the Chinese government sets the base for a higher dynamic of the implementation of regulations to push electro-mobility. This situation creates potential for suppliers.

China had big plans for electro-mobility and had planned for 1 million electric cars by 2015, which failed. Now there is a plan to have 5 million EVs on the road by 2020.

China has been trying to promote electric cars for various reasons:
- Reduce the import dependency on oil
- Improve the environment in the cities
- Electric cars could be a chance to "leapfrog" the international OEMs

However, there are a number of significant problems:
- No countrywide standards
- Not enough charging stations
- Consumers have range anxiety
- Most urban Chinese live in high rise buildings with few private parking lots

China has the same issues as the rest of the world regarding electro-mobility, especially the range anxiety. Most electric cars have a range of less than 200 km and much lower than that should climate control, navigation system etc. be used. So far the market for electric cars is mainly driven by government subsidies.

The government is now working on a regulation that will influence the technology level of the automotive market for the coming years. There are two laws that are expected to be published in spring 2017. One is the requirement for Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC). The other one is a carbon credit scheme. Those two binding specifications will influence not only the number of pure electric vehicles. They will have a big impact on the electrification of the powertrain as plug-in hybrids will become important to reach the fuel consumption target. But also the introduction of technologies that reduce the fuel consumption as tire pressure monitoring systems, high-efficiency air-conditioning systems, start-stop systems, transmission gear shift reminders and 48 Volt technology will be pushed by the new regulation. This situation creates potential for suppliers.

The JSC Automotive report begins by explaining the current situation for electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid passenger cars. The reader will know which OEMs dominate the market and why most EVs did not end up in end consumer hands so far.

The long-term vision of the government was published in the NEV roadmap in October 2016. The report summarizes the core messages of this roadmap. For the coming years the fuel saving targets and the NEV carbon credit quotas have not been issued yet (January 2017) but the government published drafts. Based on these drafts the JSC Automotive experts give an overview on how difficult it will be for the various OEMs to meet the targets. The analysts explain what impacts the regulation and how technology trends will be affected.

After learning the hard way that blind subsidies won't lead to a high technology NEV sector, the Chinese government decided to encourage new players to become active. However, after too many companies and entities came up with the intention of getting into the field, the Chinese government stipulated in August 2016 new entrants can only apply for a license under certain conditions. The report gives an overview of the new entrants that received a license and evaluate the players.

At the end of the report the JSC Automotive experts analyze how each OEM could set up its model mix to reach the regulation in the future. In the last chapter a forecast for new energy cars until the year 2022 is given. In addition to the written report comes an excel database for hybrids, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles for the next five years (2022).

Read the full report: http://www.reportlinker.com/p04647344-summary/view-report.html

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