Arch Coal, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2010 Results

ST. LOUIS, April 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --

Arch Coal, Inc. (NYSE: ACI) today reported a net loss of $1.8 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2010, compared with net income of $30.6 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter.  First quarter 2010 results include the amortization of coal supply agreements acquired in the Jacobs Ranch transaction, which was completed on Oct. 1, 2009.  Excluding this non-cash charge, first quarter 2010 adjusted net income was $5.0 million, or $0.03 per diluted share.  The company also recorded adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization ("EBITDA") of $131.4 million in the first quarter of 2010, a 14 percent increase versus the first quarter of 2009.  

"Effective cost control across all of our operations helped to offset soft domestic steam coal market conditions during the quarter just ended," said Steven F. Leer, Arch's chairman and chief executive officer.  "Additionally, strong metallurgical coal markets dramatically increased profitability in our Central Appalachian region in the first quarter compared with a year ago."

First quarter 2010 revenues grew 4.5 percent versus the year-ago quarter on higher sales volume attributed to the addition of Jacobs Ranch.  The increase in revenues was offset by higher non-cash costs, higher interest expense and a loss in the company's trading function.  Cash flow from operations increased 63 percent over the same time period to reach $93.3 million, while quarterly capital expenditures totaled $32.0 million, the lowest level in six years.

For full year 2010, Arch raised earnings guidance based upon an improving outlook for metallurgical and Powder River Basin coal sales.  "Looking ahead, we expect improved results as we progress through 2010, particularly in the year's second half," said Leer.  "We will benefit from an improved forward price curve for Powder River Basin coal and as we ramp up metallurgical coal sales in response to robust global steel market conditions."

The company also forecasts steady improvement in domestic steam coal markets during 2010.  "A slowly improving industrial economy, more seasonal weather trends and continued coal supply declines, mainly in Central Appalachia, will allow generator stockpile levels to return to more normal levels in the back half of the year," added Leer.  "These trends should provide the catalyst for improvement in all of our domestic steam coal operations."

Strategic Investments

During the first quarter, Arch made select investments to expand its reserve position in the northern Powder River Basin and to expand its advanced coal technology portfolio.  Specifically, Arch won the state of Montana's coal lease of the Otter Creek Tracts for approximately $86 million, which is payable in one installment in April 2010.  With this acquisition, the company now controls approximately 1.5 billion tons in Montana, including the Great Northern Properties coal lease that was secured in November 2009.  

Also in the first quarter, Arch announced plans to invest $3 million in ADA-ES, Inc., with $1 million to fund growth opportunities and $2 million as consideration for an exclusive license with ADA to provide environmental benefits for coals mined and marketed by Arch.  In addition, Arch made a nominal investment to acquire a 35-percent equity interest in Tenaska's Trailblazer Energy Center.  Arch's investment in Trailblazer will be staged over time as the project reaches key milestones, and Arch will act as the long-term fuel supplier for the proposed plant from its Powder River Basin operations in Wyoming.

"We continue to lay the foundation for future organic growth by opportunistically amassing a sizeable reserve position in the northern Powder River Basin," said Leer.  "Furthermore, we are advancing our strategy of making small investments in clean energy technologies that make coal use more efficient and cleaner as well as expand markets for coal."

Core Values

Arch's first quarter 2010 lost-time safety incident rate was 0.34 incidents per 200,000 hours worked, on par with the company's record performance in the first quarter of 2009.  Arch's environmental compliance record in the first quarter of 2010 also matched its industry-leading performance from the year-ago quarter.  In addition, eight subsidiary mines or facilities achieved a perfect record for both safety and environmental compliance in the quarter just ended.

Arch also received several awards in the first quarter of 2010, highlighting its record safety performance during 2009.  In particular, Mountain Laurel earned West Virginia's top honor for the best safety performance among the state's large underground coal mines.  Furthermore, Wyoming named Black Thunder as the state's safest coal mine and Coal Creek as the state's second safest coal mine for each mine's respective size category.  Also, Coal-Mac and Mountain Laurel were awarded West Virginia's Mountaineer Guardian Awards and West Elk was honored with a Colorado state safety award for achievements in employee safety last year.

Additionally, Arch subsidiaries were recognized with several community outreach and environmental stewardship awards in the first quarter of 2010.  Specifically, the company's Thunder Basin subsidiary in Wyoming was named the recipient of the 2010 Public Outreach Award by the Interstate Mining Compact Commission (IMCC) for its multi-faceted educational efforts to effectively reach people in the local community, the state and the nation.  The West Elk mine received two Colorado state environmental awards for its replacement of a U.S. Forest Service Road and for its proactive methods of reducing wastes.  Lastly, Coal-Mac was honored by the state of West Virginia for its exemplary care in creating excellent wildlife habitat and in reducing its environmental impact on the mine's surrounding community.

"We are off to an outstanding start in 2010 in terms of safety and environmental performance, effectively building upon our record-breaking year in 2009," said John W. Eaves, Arch's president and chief operating officer.  "While we are proud of our accomplishments and of the external recognition, we remain sharply focused on continuous improvement.  Our goal is to operate the world's safest and most environmentally responsible coal mines."

Operational Results

"Our consolidated operating margin per ton expanded 6 percent in the first quarter of 2010 versus the fourth quarter, helped by higher prices and lower costs in Central Appalachia and by continued cost improvement in the Powder River Basin," said Eaves.  "Going forward, we expect coal markets to continue strengthening, and we will remain disciplined in managing our controllable costs throughout the year to help further expand our operating margin."

Consolidated first quarter 2010 operating margin expanded by $0.11 per ton compared with the fourth quarter of 2009.  Average sales price declined $0.27 per ton while consolidated operating costs fell by $0.38 per ton over the same time period, primarily reflecting a larger percentage of Powder River Basin production.

In the Powder River Basin, first quarter 2010 volumes increased slightly when compared with the fourth quarter of 2009, reflecting the full integration of Jacobs Ranch into Black Thunder.  First quarter 2010 operating margin earned was $0.85 per ton compared with $1.00 per ton in the prior-quarter period.  Average sales price declined $0.21 per ton in the first quarter of 2010 versus the prior-quarter period, reflecting a less favorable mix of customer shipments and lower pricing on contracted tons.  Operating costs, excluding amortization of acquired coal supply agreements, declined $0.06 per ton over this same time period.  

In the Western Bituminous region, first quarter 2010 volumes declined roughly 700,000 tons when compared with the fourth quarter of 2009, reflecting weak market conditions and a longwall move in the region.  Arch earned $2.59 per ton in operating margin in the region in the first quarter of 2010 compared with $5.10 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2009.  Average sales price decreased $0.41 per ton over the same time period, due to a less favorable mix of customer shipments and limited open market sales in the quarter just ended, while operating costs rose by $2.10 per ton, consistent with lower volume levels and a longwall move in the quarter just ended.  

In Central Appalachia, Arch earned $12.86 per ton in operating margin during the first quarter of 2010, more than doubling the fourth quarter 2009 performance.  Average sales price increased nearly 11 percent over this same time period, reflecting a larger percentage of metallurgical coal shipments and higher pricing on metallurgical coal sales.  First quarter 2010 operating costs declined $1.01 per ton versus the prior-quarter period, benefiting from a larger percentage of production from the company's lowest cost mines in the region.  

Coal Market Trends

Arch expects coal markets to continue to strengthen throughout 2010.  "Key drivers in domestic and international markets are helping to improve this year's outlook for coal markets," said Leer, "and we remain very bullish on coal's long-term fundamentals."

In particular, power demand increased 2.6 percent through the second week of April, according to the Edison Electric Institute, while coal production declined 5.2 percent year-to-date, according to government estimates.  Coal production is estimated to be down year-to-date in 2010 in both the eastern and western United States, with Central Appalachia declining 10 percent and the Powder River Basin declining 4 percent, based on current Energy Information Administration data.  

Continued regulatory challenges, reserve degradation and soft steam market conditions in Central Appalachia threaten to further reduce production.  Arch forecasts 2010 production in that region to decline into the range of 160 million to 170 million tons.  In addition, strength in the global steel sector is pulling high-quality steam coal into robust metallurgical coal markets, reducing the available coal supply to Eastern generators.  Arch now expects domestic U.S. coal exports to increase by at least 15 million tons versus 2009.  

Furthermore, Arch believes that U.S. generator coal stockpile levels have declined by nearly 35 million tons from peak levels in November 2009, and totaled approximately 170 million tons at the end of March.  The company also anticipates a smaller build in coal stockpiles during the spring of 2010 compared with prior years.  Consequently, Arch believes that generator stockpiles are likely to return to target levels during the second half of 2010.

While U.S. customer stockpiles remain above target, stockpiles at Powder River Basin customers are already near normal levels, according to third-party estimates.  Coal stockpiles in Central Appalachia and in the Western Bituminous region remain above the five-year average as industrial demand in these regions has yet to return to pre-recession levels.

Over the longer term, approximately 40 million tons of new, incremental annual coal demand will be generated between 2010 and 2012 as 12 gigawatts of new coal-fueled power plants come online in the U.S.  More than 6 gigawatts of new coal plants have already come online since 2008, with nearly 1.5 gigawatts beginning operations during the first quarter of 2010.  On a global scale, 220 gigawatts of coal-fueled capacity are expected to come online by 2015, translating into an additional 750 million tons of new annual coal demand.

Production and Sales Contract Portfolio

Arch expects sales volumes from company-controlled operations to be in the 147 million to 155 million ton range for 2010.  Sales of metallurgical and pulverized coal injection (PCI) coal – which are included within the company's full year volume guidance range – are now expected to reach 6 million to 7 million tons.  To attain the higher metallurgical coal sales range, the company has begun placing its uncommitted metallurgical coal volumes, and plans to shift coal that was previously planned as steam sales into more profitable metallurgical and PCI markets.  

"We now expect to more than triple our planned metallurgical coal sales in 2010 versus last year, capitalizing on the strength of global metallurgical coal markets," said Eaves.  "In addition, we have plans to expand production of metallurgical grade coal at our Cumberland River complex in Central Appalachia to increase our total metallurgical coal capabilities to approach 8 million tons on an annualized basis, should market conditions warrant."  

During the first quarter, Arch committed roughly 1.5 million tons of Central Appalachian coal into metallurgical markets for 2010 delivery, at average netback mine prices in the triple digits.  In recent weeks, the company has selectively committed coal into metallurgical markets for 2010 delivery, at netback mine prices in the $140 per short ton to $150 per short ton range.  

In the Powder River Basin, Arch signed commitments for its remaining 5 million tons of uncommitted coal for 2010 delivery, at average prices that exceeded the then prevailing applicable forward price curve.  The company also signed agreements for less than 5 million tons of coal for 2011 delivery at price premiums to the then prevailing 2011 forward curve.

"The attractive price levels signed during the first quarter should help to expand Arch's future profitability," said Eaves.  "At the same time, we remain selective in signing new business to preserve the value of our reserve base and to ensure we obtain satisfactory returns on our capital.  We believe this strategy provides the best long-term value for our shareholders."

Based on the company's expected production levels and current sales commitments, Arch has uncommitted volumes of 65 million to 75 million tons in 2011, and uncommitted volumes of 100 million to 110 million tons in 2012.  In addition, Arch has approximately 10 million tons of coal committed but not yet priced in 2010 and roughly 20 million tons committed but not yet priced in both 2011 and 2012.

2010 Guidance

Arch has updated its 2010 earnings guidance as follows:

• Sales volume from company-controlled operations in the 147 million to 155 million ton range, excluding purchased coal from third parties.
• Earnings per diluted share on a GAAP basis of between $0.87 and $1.26, which includes non-cash amortization of acquired coal supply agreements.  Excluding this non-cash charge, adjusted earnings per diluted share would be in the range of $1.00 to $1.40.
• Adjusted EBITDA in the $700 million to $790 million range.  
• Capital spending in the $315 million to $335 million range, which reflects new reserve additions in Montana and modest spending for increased metallurgical coal production.
• Depreciation, depletion and amortization expense (excluding non-cash amortization of acquired coal supply agreements) in the $372 million to $380 million range.  

"We believe that the long-term outlook for U.S. coal remains bright, and that Arch is well positioned to capitalize on expected growth in global and domestic coal consumption in 2010 and beyond," said Leer.  "Our raised earnings guidance this year reflects our confidence in improving coal market fundamentals and in our ability to generate increasing cash flow for the company's stakeholders."  

A conference call regarding Arch Coal's first quarter 2010 financial results will be webcast live today at 11 a.m. E.D.T.  The conference call can be accessed via the "investor" section of the Arch Coal Web site (http://investor.archcoal.com).

St. Louis-based Arch Coal is the second largest U.S. coal producer, with revenues of $2.6 billion in 2009.  Through its national network of mines, Arch supplies cleaner-burning, low-sulfur coal to U.S. power producers to fuel roughly 8 percent of the nation's electricity.  The company also ships coal to domestic and international steel manufacturers as well as international power producers.

Forward-Looking Statements:  This press release contains "forward-looking statements" – that is, statements related to future, not past, events.  In this context, forward-looking statements often address our expected future business and financial performance, and often contain words such as "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "plans," "believes," "seeks," or "will."  Forward-looking statements by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain.  For us, particular uncertainties arise from changes in the demand for our coal by the domestic electric generation industry; from legislation and regulations relating to the Clean Air Act and other environmental initiatives; from operational, geological, permit, labor and weather-related factors; from fluctuations in the amount of cash we generate from operations; from future integration of acquired businesses; and from numerous other matters of national, regional and global scale, including those of a political, economic, business, competitive or regulatory nature.  These uncertainties may cause our actual future results to be materially different than those expressed in our forward-looking statements.  We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law.  For a description of some of the risks and uncertainties that may affect our future results, you should see the risk factors described from time to time in the reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SOURCE Arch Coal, Inc.

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